SINGAPORE: COVID-19 has reminded me of my university days studying Stephen Jay Gould’s evolutionary biology theory of “punctuated equilibrium”.

The concept refers to long periods of stability in nature that are upset and disrupted by short periods of rapid change.

For example, a species of sea animal that has existed for thousands of years, but is suddenly forced to adapt when sea levels suddenly change. Its body develops to accommodate this environmental change, and from that point on it is evolutionarily different from its ancestors.

Its world has forced a change in behaviour by default, and that becomes the new normal.

COVID-19 OUR HUGE DISRUPTION

Punctuated equilibrium has parallels in the technology world. Throughout history computer systems have often demonstrated extended periods of stasis followed by disruptive change.

We have moved from transistors to vacuum tubes to massive mainframe computers to minicomputers to PCs and laptops. Today, we have incredibly powerful computers in our pockets that we refer to as phones.

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In the technology world‚ we often cite Moore’s Law as an example of constantly increasing change, but that isn’t strictly correct. New chips come along every couple of years, but the big, industry-transforming events have tended to appear more like every decade.

So, considering the theory of punctuated equilibrium, COVID-19 is our next huge disruption that we have to manage. Among the various possible scenarios, one thing is certain: New trends will emerge.

Enterprises will need to focus more than ever on building new customer relationships through effective digital experiences, since physical interaction with them will be far less. With so many end-users and customers quarantined in their homes, these digital experiences will matter more than ever.

Companies must be robust. Those that will thrive will be those able to retain customer trust during the COVID-19 pandemic and subsequently lead those customers out of it. 

Governments must also take part to support companies and businesses to adapt seamlessly to these new trends.

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There is strong momentum to achieve rapid digital transformation in Singapore. The Singapore Government recently announced that about S$500 million of the Fortitude Budget will be allocated to support the digital transformation of businesses.

Highlighting the sharp rise in e-payment by businesses with 50,000 more businesses adopting PayNow Corporate since April, Deputy Prime Minister Heng Swee Keat emphasised that more help will be given to boost the use of digital solutions for enterprises that have not been able to implement such tools yet.

THE RISE OF THE CONTACTLESS ECONOMY

There is a high likelihood that APAC will morph into being what will effectively be a contact-free economy. Online shopping was already proving increasingly popular with consumers in the Asia-Pacific (APAC) before COVID-19, but lockdowns and stringent restrictions have sent it through the roof.

China has seen consumers begin to shop online in much bigger numbers, while 13 per cent of Europeans said in April that they were planning to investigate e-tailers for the first time.

Italy, one of the hardest-hit nations in the world during COVID-19, reported an 81 per cent increase in e-commerce transactions since the end of February.

I expect APAC consumers to follow suit. E-commerce in APAC was forecast to be worth US$3.5 trillion by 2021, according to the eMarketer 2019 Global E-commerce Forecast.

While the emergence of the contact-free economy is likely to see this number revised upwards, APAC ecommerce platforms like Lazada, Shopee, ShopBack and Zalora are helping brands and consumers during COVID-19. According to research by Ipsos, Vietnam has seen 57 per cent of shoppers shifting their purchasing online, with India at 57 per cent and China at 50 per cent not far behind.

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On top of e-commerce, we can expect e-health to see big increases in use in the post COVID-19 world. Digital solutions like telemedicine and online crowdsourced health monitoring are moving from an initially slow adoption path to a record uptake pace.

Solutions like the new Bluetooth-powered app for contact tracing launched by the Singapore government, TraceTogether, show great potential. 

Data will be central to all the advances we make in e-health and e-commerce, as companies use customer experience and feedback to build insights that help make offerings better and relationships with end-users stronger.

TECHNOLOGY WILL POWER THE NEW NORMAL

Other digital technologies will play vital roles in our new future in APAC and beyond. It is a lesser known fact that an AI epidemiologist raised the first alarm bells on the COVID-19 pandemic in December 2019.

In the future, automation and AI adoption will play a critical role for early detection and timely response to such pandemics. Drones are already being utilised during the COVID-19 lockdown, and the pandemic is likely to drive longer-term adoption of autonomous vehicles and robotics.

Autonomous vehicles are being used in the US to deliver COVID-19 tests to laboratories, while in China, delivery app Meituan Dianping is using autonomous vehicles to deliver grocery and food orders to customers as part of a “contactless delivery” initiative.

In general, autonomous vehicles could help ease the strain on existing delivery services and supply chains, while reducing the risk of exposure for citizens.

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Companies that want to thrive during and after the pandemic will need robust infrastructure. Cloud connectivity on demand will ensure remote workers have sufficient bandwidth, split tunnelling will optimise networks and remote gateways will help companies add numbers to remote working teams quickly without losing performance.

In terms of autonomous vehicles and drones, Internet of Things (IoT) spending in APAC has typically been smaller than other world regions. But expect that to change as distancing drives decisions and the contact-free economy becomes more commonplace.

Data analytics company GlobalData has stated:

The pandemic will only accelerate the demand for digital transformation, and IT vendors in APAC will do well to prepare for the impending explosion in opportunities around digital transformation.

Kitty Fok, Managing Director of market intelligence firm IDC China, agrees: 

Digital-first will be at the core of business transformation as the digital economy progresses, and companies will face new, more daunting challenges from huge changes taking place in the global macro environment due to the COVID-19 pandemic. Companies can deliver more value by adopting digital-first business models that enable ‘ultra-fast speed, ultra-high scale and ultra-wide connections.

The post-COVID-19 future will need companies to be resilient and sustainable and that will mean innovation powered by digital technologies and data.

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Nick Lambert is Senior Vice President APAC at Orange Business Service.

SINGAPORE: People across Singapore started returning to work and school on Tuesday (Jun 2) as the country entered Phase 1 of lifting its “circuit breaker” measures, seven weeks after the curbs were implemented.

Circuit breaker measures first came into effect on Apr 7, and were further tightened after three weeks as COVID-19 continued to spread. The restrictions included the ban of social gatherings, suspension of schools, closing of workplaces and shuttering of most businesses, among many others.

Here’s what the day looked like for Singaporeans who began adjusting to the “new normal”, post-circuit breaker.

7am: Wearing masks of various colours and patterns, primary and secondary school students across Singapore streamed into school on what would have been the first week of their usual June school holidays.

With the COVID-19 situation escalating at the tail end of April, authorities announced that the school holidays would be brought forward to start on May 5, so that it coincided with the extended circuit breaker period.

In Phase 1, students from graduating cohorts in primary and secondary schools are allowed to return to school on weekdays, while other cohorts rotate weekly, alternating between home-based learning (HBL) and returning to school for lessons.

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8am: In the central business district, the morning rush hour was a far cry from the crowds that used to throng the public transportation system daily.

In the trains, commuters in masks sat next to each other – something that had not been possible for the last few months, with stickers on alternate seats that promoted social-distancing measures.

The central business district itself was noticeably quieter, as the only employees who were allowed to return to the office were those who needed to access specialised systems that could not be accessed from home. 

Those reporting for work had to “check in” at their offices using SafeEntry, a national digital system that logs details to facilitate contact-tracing efforts.

Security personnel at the entrance were also tasked with temperature-taking for anyone entering the building.

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9am: In the heartlands, snaking queues formed outside various bank branches as they too reopened for the first time in weeks. 

People in line continued to practice social distancing measures, and had to check in and out using SafeEntry when entering and leaving the bank’s premises.

10am: Behind the scenes at the NTUC First Campus’ My First Skool at 50 Sengkang Way, teachers were cleaning toys in an industrial steriliser after children had played with them.

A cleaner was also seen wiping down frequently touched surfaces like these cubby holes with disinfectant.

Pre-schools will gradually reopen from Jun 2, with kindergarten children returning to school first, followed by those in nursery levels, and finally, those in infant care or playgroups on Jun 10.

11am: As government service centres like the Housing Development Board Hub (HDB) and Central Provident Fund (CPF) reopened their service counters today, long queues were seen outside their buildings in Tampines and Toa Payoh. 

In the interest of safeguarding public health, the services are only available to those who make appointments beforehand.

Hairdressers and barbers had already been allowed to reopen since May 12, when some circuit breaker measures were eased. At the time, they were allowed to offer only basic haircuts. This has now been extended to the full range of hairdressing services, and today saw many salons filled with customers getting perms, colouring jobs and other hair treatment, even as they kept their masks on.

However, most retail outlets and establishments offering other personal services are still not allowed to reopen during Phase 1.

1pm: Whether it was in the central business district or the heartlands, restaurants and F&B outlets remained empty, save for the smattering of people waiting outside the premises for their takeaway orders.

Dining in at F&B outlets continues to be disallowed in Phase 1, in an effort to curb the spread of COVID-19.

2pm: Students at a primary school are seen leaving at the end of their first day back at school.

Air-conditioner servicing and basic pet grooming are some of the services that were allowed to reopen for business today, and those offering such services saw their first customers in weeks.

Other services allowed to resume today include motor vehicle servicing, school bookshops and retail shops selling school uniforms.

Home-based food businesses were allowed to resume operations on May 12, but other home-based businesses that ran on a delivery-and-collection model were not given the green light until today. 

Outside the SingPost branch at Tampines Central, people stood patiently in line with large bags of parcels to mail out.

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6pm: As the day drew to a close, taxi drivers gathered in the CBD in the hope of getting a fare as office workers headed back home.

Raffles Place, which is usually abuzz with people, was quiet as the last few stragglers left their offices for home.

7pm: As the sun set on the first day after the circuit breaker’s 49-day grip on people’s routines, dozens headed out for a stroll, jog or bike ride.

For many, their first day back at work will be a new routine to get used to, after weeks of staying home.

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