AS AUSTRALIA has geared up to host a so-called Special Summit for the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (Asean) this weekend, the question of whether it may one day join the regional bloc has come up for debate.

Australia was the first country to establish a multilateral relationship with Asean in 1974 and has had a free trade agreement with the grouping along with New Zealand since 2008. With the Summit focused on Australia deepening its strategic and economic ties with its fourth largest trading partner, a decades’ old question has re-remerged: could it one day become a full member?

Indonesia’s President Joko “Jokowi” Widodo told the Sydney Morning Herald this week that he thought Australia joining the regional bloc was a “good idea” because “our region will be better, [for] stability, economic stability, and also political stability. Sure, it will be better.”

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But in a region where losing face and open confrontation are avoided, Jokowi was “most likely either being polite or he meant Australia should be engaged with Asean rather than actual full membership,” said A. Ibrahim Almuttaqi, Head of the Asean Studies Program at The Habibie Center in Jakarta.

“Jokowi always gives these non-committal responses which can be misconstrued by people who haven’t spent much time in Indonesia,” Aaron Connelly, Research Fellow in the East Asia Program at the Lowy Institute in Sydney told Asian Correspondent. “It’s a very Javanese way of saying ‘Inshallah’ (God willing).”

Indeed, Jokowi – an enthusiastic proponent of harsh anti-drug policies involving the death penalty – has previously said that Indonesia would abolish capital punishment if his citizens wished it, knowing full well that a majority of the population is in support.

Indonesian President Joko Widodo (C) makes a statement on the US recognition of Jerusalem as Israel’s capital, at the Presidential Palace in Bogor, West Java, Indonesia December 7, 2017 in this photo taken by Antara Foto. President Widodo is accompanied by Coordinating Ministry for Political, Legal and Security Wiranto (L) and Deputy Foreign Minister AM Fachir (R). Source: Antara Foto/Puspa Perwitasari/ via Reuters

A “new form” of membership

Australia and New Zealand are not geographically part of what is considered Southeast Asia. The sub region – home to almost 650,000 million people – is comprised of the 10 Asean member states as well as Timor Leste.

Timor Leste – which was formerly part of Indonesia until 2002 – is undeniably part of the region, however has not yet succeeded in achieving Asean membership because of staunch opposition from Singapore. Burma (Myanmar) and Laos have also expressed concerns.

Asean is fundamentally based upon consensus, making it notoriously slow and conservative in its collective decision making.

Despite this, a report released last month by the influential Canberra-based Australian Strategic Policy Institute (ASPI) made the case that “Australia’s future in Southeast Asia lies in joining Asean”.

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From left: Indonesian Defence Minister Ryamizard Ryacudu; Indonesian Foreign Minister Retno Marsudi; Australian Foreign Minister Julie Bishop; Australian Defence Minister Marise Payne attend a 2 + 2 meeting ahead of the Asean-Australia Special Summit in Sydney, Australia 16 March 2018. Source: Twitter / @JulieBishopMP

It argues that Australia should push for the establishment of a “new form” of Asean membership which would allow it and New Zealand to be part of the community. In lieu of achieving this, argues its author Graeme Dobell, Australia should aim for observer status as is currently enjoyed by Timor Leste and Papua New Guinea.

“In the defence realm, Australia seeks a united, stable Southeast Asia that acts as a strategic shield across the north of the continent,” said the report. “Economically, the Australia – New Zealand – Asean Free Trade Agreement can be the departure point for further Oz–Kiwi integration in the new Economic Community.”

“Asean membership seems a long way off only if you ignore the distance Australia and Asean have travelled in the past 50 years,” concluded Dobell.

To many in the region, however, it is an impossibility. “Australia cannot be a member of Asean,” said Dr Sanchita Basu Das, a research fellow at the Asean Studies Centre at the National University of Singapore. “Including Australia as an Asean member is a dream.”

Unlikely soon, if ever

The likelihood of Australia joining Asean is “zero”, said Connelly of the Lowy Institute. Jokowi’s comments are belied by the fact that there is “no support for it within the Indonesian system” and that a number of member states, like Singapore, might well be “deeply opposed” to the idea, he said.

Irahim agreed, saying Indonesia would be very reluctant to give up its leadership of the organisation. “I think it would be highly unlikely for this to happen anytime soon,” he said.

“While there are benefits and opportunities that Canberra would bring to the organisation, its membership would significantly disrupt the dynamics of Asean in a way that I don’t think any of the member states will be willing to accept.”

SEE ALSO: Experts call for greater education integration across Asean

Optimism around the prospect remains strong in Australia, however.

“I will look forward to discussing that with President Jokowi if he raises it with me,” Australian PM Malcolm Turnbull told Fairfax when told about the Indonesian leader’s comments. “We would wait to be invited … we treat Asean and the centrality of Asean in the region with the greatest respect.”

Australia’s former Prime Minister Paul Keating has long called for Australia to be included in the regional bloc. In 2012, he declared that Australia’s “former sphere of influence” in the Anglosphere was declining and that it was “natural” that it belongs in Asean. Keating told Fairfax this week that “I am very gratified to hear that President Jokowi has said what he has said.”

Australian Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull shakes hands with Cambodia’s Prime Minister Hun Sen before their bilateral meeting during the one-off summit of 10-member Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) in Sydney, Australia, March 16, 2018. Source: Reuters/David Gray

SEE ALSO: Australia must do more to hold Burma, Cambodia to account at Asean summit

Filipino political scientist Richard Heydarian recently told ABC News that “there are certain huge cultural barriers or concerns about Australia being part of Asean.”

“For sure there are even people that scoffed at the idea of Australia being in Asean,” he said. “But I think some sort of special partnership … is something that could be discussed.”

But the debate has more to do with Australian identity than a genuine possibility of becoming an Asean member, said Connelly. It is about “whether Australia is a part of Asia or remains an outpost of the British Empire,” he said. “That is a really terrible way to make foreign policy. Foreign policy should be formed according to Australian interests: rule of law, good governance, non-coercion.”

“Australia should think how they can strengthen their economic ties with Asean,” Dr Sanchita told Asian Correspondent. “At this moment much of the limelight over economic ties is taken by China and Japan. Australia needs to think of a concrete economic plan to strengthen Asean’s integration.”

The Asean-Australia Special Summit is being held in Sydney from March 16 to 18.

AUSTRALIA’S promise to raise human rights concerns with Burma (Myanmar) and Cambodian leaders when they attend the summit of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (Asean) in Sydney this weekend doesn’t go far enough, according to Human Rights Watch.

Australian Foreign Minister Julie Bishop said Friday that human rights abuses and the ongoing violence against the Rohingya minority in Burma would be “matters that we would be discussing with the Myanmar delegation” when the three-day summit begins on Friday.

SEE ALSO: Aung San Suu Kyi will come to the Asean summit with her reputation tarnished

Australian Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull shakes hands with Cambodia’s Prime Minister Hun Sen before their bilateral meeting during the one-off summit of 10-member Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) in Sydney, Australia, March 16, 2018. Source:/David Gray

But Director of Human Rights Watch Elaine Pearson doesn’t think this goes far enough.

“Ultimately, I don’t think, given the gravity of these abuses, that just having a quiet chat behind closed doors is really enough,” Pearson told Asian Correspondent, instead favouring a public statement by the government.

“It’s important, not just to get the message across to leaders but also so the people back home in Cambodia and Myanmar are crystal clear on what Australia’s position is … (The government) needs to send a message to the people that Australia is really concerned about the human rights abuses in those countries.”

SEE ALSO: Asean-Australia Special Summit marks step toward a deeper relationship

The three-day meet is officially aimed at strengthening political ties, counter-terrorism, and fostering economic cooperation between the 10-member Asean and Australia amid China’s rising influence.

The inclusion of Burma’s de facto leader Aung San Suu Kyi and Cambodia Prime Minister Hun Sen in the meeting has drawn criticism, and large protests are planned against both.

Hun Sen, a former Khmer Rouge general who has ruled Cambodia for more than 30 years, promised to personally attack any demonstrators should they burn effigies or pictures of him, saying: “I will follow you all the way to your doorstep and beat you right there … I can use violence against you.”

Asked about the threat, Bishop said Australia was “certainly going to raise our concerns with the Cambodian delegation.”

There will also be protests held condemning Suu Kyi for her lack of action in the continued persecution of Rohingya Muslims, which has seen almost 700,000 flee across the border into neighbouring Bangladesh.

(L-R) Malaysia’s Prime Minister Najib Razak, Myanmar’s State Counsellor Aung San Suu Kyi, Thailand’s Prime Minister Prayuth Chan-ocha, Vietnam’s Prime Minister Nguyen Xuan Phuc, South Korea President Moon Jae-in, Philippines’ President Rodrigo Duterte, Singapore’s Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong, Brunei’s Sultan Hassanal Bolkiah, Cambodia’s Prime Minister Hun Sen, Indonesia’s President Joko Widodo and Laos’ Prime Minister Thongloun Sisoulith join hands during a family photo before the 19th ASEAN Republic of Korea Summit in Manila, Philippines November 13, 2017. Source: Reuters/Aaron Favila/Pool

Australian Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull has been under pressure to condemn the Nobel laureate’s failure to speak out against the crisis.

“It is in our interest to engage all Asean members including Aung San Suu Kyi at this summit because it gives us the best chance of influencing outcomes and making our concerns known,” Bishop said.

Pearson urged the government to be direct in their petitions to the leaders by making it known that Australia will not consider the upcoming Cambodian election legitimate if it remains essentially a one-party state. She also called on Turnbull to demand that Burma allow access to the country by a UN fact-finding mission.

Australia risks missing a rare opportunity to engage on such a senior level with these countries, and the promise of improved trade should not take precedence over human rights issues, Pearson said. Without a clear and unambiguous message, the invite to the summit and the welcome from the Australian Prime Minister “will only give more legitimacy to these leaders,” she said.