SINGAPORE: The new Canberra MRT station is on track to be completed by December next year, Transport Minister Khaw Boon Wan said during a visit to the station’s worksite on Wednesday (May 9).

The station is located between Sembawang and Yishun stations, under the North-South Line. It will serve commuters living in nearby estates such as Sembawang Springs, as well as upcoming residential developments in Canberra.

When the station is completed, another 17,000 households will be within a 10-minute walk from an MRT station, the Land Transport Authority (LTA) said. These commuters will also be able to cut 10 minutes from their journey when travelling to the city centre or Jurong East.

The station will have five entrances linking it to new housing estates and an elevated link bridge across Canberra Link for commuters to directly access the city-bound train platform.

It will also have covered linkways to bus stops, pick-up and drop-off points, as well as more than 500 bicycle parking lots.

BUILT ON TOP OF “LIVE” MRT LINE 

Canberra is the second MRT station to be built on an existing MRT line, with the first being Dover. LTA said it had to implement measures to ensure the safety of the North-South Line’s existing structures while minimising disruptions to train services.

“As you can imagine, such projects are not easy to do. Ages ago I had an open heart surgery and surgeon asked me there are two ways to do. One is a very traditional open-heart method … there’s another way which is you let the heart continue to beat and then you do the sewing while the heart is beating.

“And this (Canberra station) is something like open heart surgery. This is called the beating heart method. It can be done, but of course it’s very challenging,” said Mr Khaw.

To protect the railway tracks and running trains during the construction of the station roof, a temporary enclosure was erected to cover the tracks. Thereafter, “V-columns” were erected at the platform level to support the roof trusses, which have all been installed.

The station is 55 per cent completed, and all structural works will be completed in the third quarter of this year, LTA said. After completing structural works, LTA will fit out the architectural finishes and install electrical and mechanical services before it starts running tests.

SINGAPORE: Since the publication of This is What Inequality Looks Like in January, I have seen intensified interest in poverty and inequality in Singapore.

Readers seem especially interested in my discussion of education and meritocracy. Many are disturbed that the education system is not the great equaliser we wish it to be. 

Our national leaders too have mentioned the importance of education as a social leveler and a way out of poverty. Much has been said about increased investment in early childhood education and ensuring that kids from low-income households are adequately prepared for primary school.

I think parents would welcome greater support for them. As a sociologist, however, I have concerns.

Pursued on its own, without significant recalibration of other key principles currently embedded in the system, a focus on early childhood education risks intensifying the “education arms race.” It may bring forward and intensify competition while ultimately doing little to alter unequal opportunities and outcomes.

TIME IS THE GIFT WORTH GIVING

Several issues bear deeper consideration.

First, the system currently rewards precocity of a particular sort. Over the years, our schools are requiring children to read and write at ever younger ages. 

This advantages kids from higher-income households and disadvantages kids from lower-income households because higher-income parents have more resources to prepare their children in these areas before formal schooling begins.

It is tempting to think that the fix is to enable kids from lower-income households to also read and write earlier.

We need to step back to consider if this will really allow our schools to nurture the potential of all students. Differences in how well children do certain tasks at a certain age are not an accurate predictor of future abilities. There are natural variations in development that have no significant consequences over the long term.

A child who walks at ten months old, for example, will not be a superior walker to one who walks at thirteen months; it would be ridiculous to force a child to walk before they are ready.

Indeed, in places like Finland and Germany, school systems are not focused on narrow modes of reading and writing at early ages, and this is not detrimental to their kids’ long-term educational achievements.

When kids cannot perform the narrow set of tasks that are recognised and rewarded, they become demoralised early on in their schooling journeys. This significantly impedes learning and growth in the longer term.

In the early years, time for kids to grow and develop would better reflect the realities of childhood development than trying to compel all kids to perform a narrow set of tasks at an increasingly early age. 

This unrealistic pressure to accelerate academic performance also affects teachers. Effective teaching, like genuine learning, takes time.

Time pressure pushes teachers to rely on parents — untrained and clueless about developments in pedagogy — to do their children’s homework with or for them. This promotes class inequalities and represents a waste of our societal investments in teachers.

For example, to help my Primary 4 child with Mathematics, my husband consulted a YouTube instructional video because his problem-solving method, learnt in school decades ago, was no longer acceptable at school.

While parents often complain about shifting techniques, as an educator, I believe that new and better techniques should be welcomed. But parents cannot deliver them. If resources have been spent to train teachers in new techniques, let teachers teach. And to do so, they will need time.

EXAMINATIONS: THE TAIL THAT WAGS THE DOG

I once heard a vivid reference to examinations as the tail that wags the dog. When high-stakes examinations are administered at specific and early times in a child’s educational journey, school activities are unavoidably oriented toward preparing students for them.

Educators know that examinations have limited pedagogical value, especially when students do not see exam scripts to learn from what they did right or wrong. A key purpose of examinations is to differentiate and hierarchise students—to place them on a scale and reward them differently. Examinations are an indispensable tool mainly if sorting is the key goal.

Streaming has been called different things at different times, but the basic principle is that kids are identified and sorted into separate classes, to learn different things, with different trajectories within the system. Some form of this begins around Primary 3, and the Primary School Leaving Examination (PSLE) at Primary 6 is a major fork in the road.

Offering multiple pathways is hard to refute in the abstract. But if kids have multiple strengths that take time to develop, then sorting them prematurely entails major risks of misidentification, misalignment, and ultimately the loss of human potential.

Moreover, as long as kids are rarely allowed to backtrack or change lanes, and if pathways lead to different destinations — different jobs, income, security, ability to meet needs — parents will continue to be anxious about their kids taking the pathways more likely to lead to economic and social security.

If multiple strengths are not equally rewarded, parents will not be able to make genuine choices to suit the talents of their kids.

The caricature of Singaporean parents as kiasu misses this important point—“losing” has major consequences. Most parents are trying to act responsibly. As long as high-stakes exams and streaming remain firmly embedded, parents have no choice but to try to get their kids to keep up.

This comes at great cost in their time, in the quality of parent-child relationships, and in a family’s financial resources. As long as there remain negative consequences to being in lower tracks, parents will try to keep their children out of them.

In such circumstances, investing in early childhood education risks merely intensifying competition.

EDUCATION AND INEQUALITY: YOU CANNOT TALK ABOUT ONE WITHOUT THE OTHER

If we take seriously what parents, teachers, and students are struggling with, we cannot detach education from high levels of income and wealth inequality. Our shared anxieties are fed by rising costs and precarity in housing, healthcare and retirement security.

We behave as we do because we are realistic about the society we live in.

Societies with less inequality have both downward and upward mobility; it must happen in both directions. Downward mobility is unfathomable for parents in societies where slight downward movement has major implications on the meeting of needs and well-being.

If we want parents to ease up on examination pressures, to spend less on tuition, to allow kids to develop myriad talents, to genuinely allow “merit” to land their kids where they land, attention must be paid to the meeting of needs at the end of the education road.

Inequality is not limited to one point in life’s course, and cannot thus be resolved by exclusive focus on early childhood.

Investment in kids from low-income families must be accompanied by deep adjustments to move education away from getting kids to be able to perform narrow skills early, from persistent practices of sorting and hierarchising children, and from unequal rewards for people with varied strengths.

Let’s not, as President Halimah Yacob puts it in her Presidential Address, “tweak things at the margins,” but instead aim for “bold changes”. Singaporeans are ready.

Teo You Yenn is an Associate Professor and Head of Sociology at Nanyang Technological University and author of This is What Inequality Looks Like (Ethos Books, 2018).

READ: A commentary on tackling inequality by moving from emotion to action.

READ: A commentary on bridging the class divide.

READ: A commentary on a second education arms race.

SINGAPORE: Her tour agency may only be two years old, but Jane Iyer’s company bagged an award at the annual Singapore Tourism Awards on Tuesday (May 8) night for the black-and-white house tours it runs.

Ms Iyer is one of 26 individuals and organisations who won awards across three categories: Customer Service, Experience Excellence and Enterprise Excellence.

The 62-year-old’s company, Jane’s Singapore Tours – which curates off-the-beaten-track tours in Singapore – won Best Tour Experience for its black-and-white house tours.

Ms Iyer has a team of 15 guides that helps her with tours around Singapore that range from architecture, food and the arts.

BEST TOUR EXPERIENCE: BLACK-AND-WHITE HOUSES TOUR

The black-and-white houses, which date back to the colonial period and were built between 1900 and the 1940s to house British army and administration officers, are an integral part of Singaporean culture, said Ms Iyer.

“People are really interested in seeing them and by showing them these houses, we can talk about history, architecture, as well as features that come together to form the black-and-white houses.”

The native Brit first came to Singapore by boat before the nation’s independence in February 1963, and has lived in the country for the past 17 years.

In 2003, she served as president for Friends of the Museums and guided in three museums, led Study Tours to other parts of Asia and ran film and book groups.

“Whether you’re Singaporean, an expatriate or tourist, it’s an accomplishment for us when people realise there’s a lot more happening in Singapore than they expected.”

BEST HOTEL EXPERIENCE: THE WAREHOUSE

Boutique hotel The Warehouse is another awardee at the Singapore Tourism Awards.

The hotel beat three others, SO Sofitel Singapore, The Fullerton Hotel and Vagabond Club, to win Best Hotel Experience.

Owned by Singapore hospitality firm, The Lo & Behold Group, The Warehouse Hotel is a locally designed boutique heritage property. It was renovated from an iconic 1895 warehouse, known in Asia as a “godown”. 

In the early 20th century, its premises were recognised as a hotbed of activity for secret societies, business deals and underground spirit distilling. 

The Warehouse Hotel underwent a transformation and reopened in January 2017. It is now a 37-room independent hotel, focusing on heritage and local culture, and features a rooftop infinity pool.

The property is designed by homegrown agency Asylum and local firm Zarch Collaboratives, which led the architectural rehabilitation. The hotel sought to revisit Singapore’s lost history by integrating industrial designs into its decor. 

“We had a lot of design excerpts that were looking at aspects of modernity, while at the same time getting a nostalgic feeling back into the building,” said The Warehouse Hotel General Manager Tarun Kalra.

“What separates us from the rest is our celebration of local entrepreneurship, businesses and community.”

29 INDIVIDUALS AND ORGANISATIONS RECOGNISED

A total of 29 individuals and organisations were recognised at the Singapore Tourism Awards ceremony held at The Fairmont Singapore. 

Three special awards were given to an outstanding individual and two organisations for their contributions to the industry. 

Dr Kiat W Tan, founding chief executive officer of the National Parks Board and Gardens by the Bay, received the top award of Lifetime Achievement for Outstanding Contribution to Tourism. 

JTB Corporation and ION Orchard were each awarded the Special Recognition award.

STB chief executive Lionel Yeo said: “The Singapore Tourism Awards aims to raise industry standards by showcasing and celebrating the best of what Singapore has to offer.” 

“It is our hope that their passion for what they do will play a part in the telling of the great Singapore story, of how passion is made possible through grit and determination.”

Here are some of the other winners:

Best Attraction Experience: Night Safari 

Best Dining Experience: CURATE at Resorts World Sentosa

Best Nightspot Experience: Manhattan Bar at Regent Singapore 

Best Shopping Experience: The Shoppes at Marina Bay Sands 

Best Leisure Event: Star Wars Day: May the 4th Be With You Festival by Esprimo

SINGAPORE: Technology writer Lai Zit Seng has used voice-activated apps for three years now, but avoids using voice commands when confidential information is involved. He does not want his mobile devices spying on him and violating his privacy.

He is not being paranoid. In the middle of an interview with Talking Point, his Google Home device activated itself and said, “Okay, now by Paramore, here it is on Google Play Music.”

Talking Point host Diana Ser may have been surprised, but not Mr Lai.

“It happens often enough, even when I’m speaking to my colleagues in the office, and occasionally this thing will wake up,” he said, pointing to the device, which uses a voice-activated technology similar to Google Assistant on smartphones.

Such voice-activated apps are like hot mics waiting for instructions, which means they listen in on their users’ conversations. But Mr Lai is concerned that they do more than that. He questioned:

If a smartphone can be always listening for trigger words, then why can’t it also record and send audio all the time?

It can, and Talking Point discovers how it is done and what users should beware about to prevent their phone spying on them. (Watch the episode here.)

SECRET MIC ACCESS

Smartphone voice recognition arrived in Singapore in 2011 through Apple’s Siri, which consumers can use to search for answers, set reminders and fix appointments, among other things.

This technology has since grown in sophistication. And in the past few years, voice-activated personal assistants like Amazon Echo and Google Home have become the rage.

While tech companies like Apple and Google have denied recording consumers without their knowledge, they admitted to keeping copies of consumers’ questions and commands to improve their services for those who use their personal assistants.

However, Siri and Google Assistant are not what should worry consumers, said Mr Desmond Heng, the project director at app developer Orfeostory. The real offenders, he warned, are apps that secretly activate one’s mic to record even an intimate conversation.

An app developer can create a calendar app, for example, which could start recording once the user inputs a calendar reminder. To illustrate his point, Mr Heng’s team created a news app that secretly embeds access to a phone’s mic.

When the user opens the app and reads an article, the app can start to record conversations, which are stored on the developer’s back-end server and can be downloaded and played back.

APPS THAT INVADE PRIVACY

A phone’s mic, however, is not the only gateway to one’s life. The average smartphone contains up to 14 sensors, each packed with information about the user.

A gyroscope keeps track of the phone’s position and orientation in the user’s hands and pockets. A light sensor monitors how bright it is where the user is, and an accelerometer track’s how fast one is travelling.

Some sensors can reveal sensitive personal details. The Global Positioning System, for instance, is very useful for locating users and providing them with directions to another location. But app developers could exploit this feature.

In 2013, it was discovered that a flashlight app was secretly amassing its users’ locational data, which was sold to advertisers in a massive privacy breach.

Mr Paul Mah, who has been writing about tech gadgets for 20 years, said there are many unrelated apps that might ask for one’s location, like flashlight apps and even Tetris games.

A 2015 survey found that 58 per cent of Singapore apps in the Google Play store requested excessive permissions – for information unrelated to their functions – and 70 per cent wanted access to the phone’s location feature.

Said Mr Mah: “In certain cases, (the developers) can use it to build a profile of the user. In other cases, they might actually be reselling the data to third-party providers.”

By using the location history on a friend’s phone, Mr Mah himself was able to pinpoint the places the person went to the whole week, such as his office, and even his mode of transport.

“While he does travel by vehicle, most of the stops are not at car parks. So probably it’s Uber, Grab or a taxi,” deduced Mr Mah.

(Read: Your phone number is all a hacker needs to track you, steal your info)

THEY CAN FIGURE OUT YOUR PIN

There are rules governing the collection of personal data, but consumers are often guilty of allowing developers to access these sensors by not taking app permissions seriously.

One way to prevent apps from harvesting this information is to restrict their access to one’s mic and GPS via the phone settings.

But that will not completely secure one’s personal data. Most of these sensors lack permission controls, which means anybody could potentially access the information.

Senior research scientist Shivam Bhasin, from Nanyang Technological University’s Temasek Laboratories, showed how a developer or even a hacker could figure out someone’s personal identification number by monitoring the phone’s sensors.

For example, if a user is going to press the number two, the phone could be positioned relatively flat. But if the user reaches for the number five next, he would be moving the phone in a certain direction.

Similarly, the phone would tilt as the user goes from the number five to the number four or six.

“All this movement is captured by the sensors. And once we’re able to capture this information, we feed it to some machine-learning algorithms, and then they’re able to give us the PIN,” said Dr Bhasin.

It’s not only the hackers, but all the apps that are installed on your phone would have access to this information.

The NTU researchers achieved a 99.5 per cent success rate in recovering the 50 most common PINs (for example, 1234, 2580 or 4321).

WATCH: Unexpected ways your privacy might be comprised (Dur 2:59)

DIGITAL DILEMMA OR NO?

As smartphones evolve from communication devices into surveillance tools, some ordinary people are using phones for that very purpose.

Entrepreneur Syed D Jailani, a father of three, has installed a monitoring app on his children’s phone, giving him access to their locations and allowing him to track their daily routes, even routes from weeks past.

He is not bothered if an app developer can track his movements on his phone in the same way. “I don’t see this as a huge intrusion into my privacy,” he said. “I’ve got nothing to hide to start with.”

But how about developers using the data on his phone to crack the PIN for his bank account?

“I choose not to live by those fears,” he said. “I believe the proper authorities would have their security measures in place for that kind of thing. So that would leave me with some peace of mind.”

For others, however, the digital dilemma may only get worse as they become more reliant on smartphones.

“Privacy is definitely one of the big concerns,” said Mr Lai. “It may even feel very creepy, right – that (our conversations) are being recorded?”

Watch this episode of Talking Point here. New episodes every Thursday at 9.30pm on Mediacorp Channel 5.

SINGAPORE: Five more cases of dengue have been found in the last three days in a Jurong West cluster where three dengue-linked deaths have been reported. 

In the National Environment Agency’s (NEA) latest update on Monday (May 7), the number of dengue cases in the cluster stands at 65, five more than the 60 reported on Saturday.

Eighty cases were found in the whole of Singapore in the last week, from Apr 29 to May 5, a jump from the 56 reported the week before.

However, the number of cases is still low compared to previous years.

The dengue cluster at Jurong West Street 91 and 92 is the largest thus far this year, the Ministry of Health (MOH) and NEA earlier said.

A total of 877 dengue cases have been reported since the beginning of this year and there are six active clusters listed on the NEA website.

Besides Jurong West, other high-risk clusters with more than 10 cases include one at Bedok North Street 3 where there have been 37 cases, and one at Cashew Crescent/Chestnut Drive in Bukit Panjang, where 17 cases have been reported.

The three other clusters are in the areas of Balestier Road, Elliot Road and Gangsa Road.

NEA and MOH have asked residents to help prevent the spread of the mosquito-borne virus by keeping their environment free of breeding habitats for the insects.

SINGAPORE: The Ministry of Trade and Industry (MTI) announced in April 2018 advanced estimates of Singapore’s real gross domestic product (GDP) growth of 4.3 per cent year-on-year in the first quarter this year, higher than the 3.6 per cent growth in the previous quarter driven by strong manufacturing (of 10.1 per cent) and stable services growth (of 3.8 per cent).

Economists identify three scenarios of recovery – V, U or W. According to The Economist magazine: 

V-shaped recovery would be vigorous, as pent-up demand is unleashed. A U-shaped one would be feebler and flatter. And in a W-shape, growth would return for a few quarters, only to peter out once more.  

Singapore exhibited V-shaped recovery during 1985, where real GDP rebounded and growth rates remained elevated for several years before the next contraction; and W-shaped recoveries in 1998 and 2001 where real GDP rebounded and contracted within a short period of time.

In another instance, following the 2008 global recession, the economy grew sharply at 15 per cent year-on-year in 2010 following a mild 0.6 per cent contraction the previous year. The economy subsequently faced a period of flat to moderate growth of 2 to 3.5 per cent between 2014 to 2017.

The MTI’s recent announcement of a 4.3 per cent growth for the first quarter of 2018 is therefore good news, but the question is if the recovery has moved out of the “feeble and flat” phase.

GROWTH MOMENTUM COULD IMPROVE

Singapore’s Composite Leading Indicator, comprising forward-looking indicators, such as local business expectations surveys and US Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) suggests the improved growth momentum could continue.

The indicator, compiled by Singapore Department of Statistics, is used to monitor economic activity and anticipate upturns and downturns in the economy. Components were chosen because of leading cyclical properties, economic significance and timeliness, among other factors.

The US PMI April reading at 57.3 per cent (slightly down from March reading of 59.3 per cent) showed manufacturing activity remained robust. This followed 108 consecutive months of growth in the overall US economy and 20 straight months of growth in the manufacturing sector.

(Based on studies of historical trends by the Institute for Supply Management that generates the US PMI each month, readings above 43.2 per cent over a period of time indicates an expansion of the overall economy.)

STRONG DEMAND FROM CHINA AND THE US

According to the US PMI report, “export orders remained strong, supported by a weaker US currency. Demand remains robust, but the nation’s employment resources and supply chains are still struggling to keep up”.

The business strength in US has translated to 20 months of consecutive expansion in Singapore’s PMI readings. Singapore’s April PMI reading at 52.9, marginally down from 53.0 in March, indicated resilience in sectors attributed to higher new orders and new exports from trading partners.

(Based on studies of historical trend by the Singapore Institute of Purchasing and Materials Management, readings above 50 indicates expansion in manufacturing activity.)

Notably, China’s share of Singapore exports destination has been rising (13 per cent in 2016, up from 4 per cent in 2000), while the US’s share has been declining (7 per cent in 2016, down from in 17 per cent in 2000). 

With China growing in importance as a trading partner for Singapore and the region, there were concerns over China’s February PMI reading at 50.3, which were somewhat mitigated by improvements in March and April PMI readings at 51.5 and 51.4 respectively.

(Based on studies of historical trends by the National Bureau of Statistics of China, readings less than 50 indicates contraction in manufacturing activity.)

TIGHTENING MONETARY POLICY NEEDS PERSPECTIVE

On the back of strong economic growth, the MAS announced in April 2018 it would allow the Singapore dollar to rise, the first time it is tightening the exchange rate-based monetary policy in six years. 

This may lead some to wonder about the impact of this tightening on Singapore’s international competitiveness and hence the economy’s recovery in the medium term.

The MAS maintains the Singapore dollar nominal effective exchange rate against a band of trade-weighted basket of currencies of Singapore’s major trading partners and competitors, rather than keep to a fixed value. The MAS’s monetary policy objective is price stability over the medium term as the basis of sustainable economic growth.

Exchange rate movement is not the only factor that can affect the level of international competitiveness. Factors such as price and unit labour cost movements also impact a country’s international competitiveness.

For example, a nominal depreciation of local currency – matched by positive inflation differential with trading partners – will not give local exporters an additional edge over foreign competitors. To this end, we refer to the IMF’s computation of the real effective exchange rate, which adjusts for differentials in prices or unit labour costs between domestic and foreign trading countries. 

On both counts, relative to its trading partners and competitors, the real effective exchange rates have favoured Singapore residents. Raising nominal exchange rates can indirectly decrease the local currency prices of imported intermediate and consumption goods.

Furthermore, measures the Government has put in place to ensure stable non-labour costs, and wage increases commensurate with productivity improvements, have contributed to Singapore’s favourable position. Its unit labour costs contracted by 0.24 per cent in 2017 due to labour productivity growth of 4.5 per cent in 2017, the highest in seven years.

For now, there is room for cheer for the Singapore economy. US and China manufacturing leading indicators suggest the momentum for Singapore to move out of the feeble and flat phase can be sustained. 

MAS’s tightening of the exchange rate-based monetary policy does not necessarily translate to loss in international competitiveness, in real terms. 

These can however be derailed by the US-China trade dispute, and domestic labour productivity slowdown.

Practice Associate Professor Tan Swee Liang is a macroeconomist at the School of Economics, Singapore Management University

SINGAPORE: Three years ago, Mr Chan Chun Seng took over from Mr Lee Swee Say as Labour Chief while Mr Lee assumed the appointment of Minister for Manpower.

The changes did not surprise labour market analysts as Singapore’s tripartism works for Singapore from the perspective of the macro-economy.

Mr Lim with his vast experience in shaping labour relations brings a practical perspective to the Ministry of Manpower’s formulation of government policy and legislation regarding employment, workforce development and labour protection.

That Mr Chan has now taken over the Minister for Trade and Industry portfolio also makes sense as MOM, MTI and NTUC are three key agencies involved in Singapore’s system of tripartism.

The rotation of Cabinet ministers among these three portfolios is key to achieving Singapore’s goals of enhancing employment outcomes, including boosting our people’s competitiveness in attracting foreign investment.

READ: A commentary on what we should expect NTUC to do for PMEs.

PROGRESSION, ON TOP OF REPRESENTATION AND RELEVANCE

In his 2018 May Day rally statement, Mr Chan laid out NTUC’s new focus on helping workers find progression, on top of ensuring their protection and providing them with union membership privileges.

Some labour markets analysts are surprised by Mr Chan’s statement. First, because Mr Chan will soon leave NTUC, such a statement may create new expectations and put pressure on the new Labour Chief.

Second, an overt articulation of this new role of progression for workers for NTUC may lead every worker and employee to expect to progress in terms of pay, job responsibility and job title.

This may also put pressure on the Government and certainly on himself as the new Minister for Trade and Industry.

Why the emphasis on career progression and tripartism? Mr Chan may be well be signalling to our workforce that we must be motivated to look beyond our current jobs given the pace of technological disruptions and economic restructuring, and focus on staying employable in near future.

He may also be sending a signal to companies and employers, where ensuring a smooth career progression also depends on whether companies are able to retain workers as their wages rise.

So what kinds of companies are able to provide progression for their workers?

GROW COMPANIES WITH HIGH LABOUR SURPLUS RATIOS

From my studies on competitiveness, I find that firms with a high labour surplus ratio are able to retain their workers as wages increase. Labour surplus ratio refers to the ratio of annual surplus over total labour cost, where a company’s annual surplus is the difference between total revenue and total operating cost.

Most companies’ main operating cost is labour which includes wages and other forms of remuneration including medical benefits.  

While wages and non-wage costs have been rising in Singapore, and helping incomes keep up with costs of living, the trouble is when labour standards in developed countries including wage growth there spur wage growth here rather than productivity or innovation gains.

This would be a troubling situation precisely when some of our industries like those within the manufacturing sector do not have high surplus ratios.

The textile industry within Singapore’s manufacturing sector has a surplus ratio of only 11 per cent in 2015 for instance. This means that, once wages and other wage costs rise, the annual surplus can be negative for some firms.

Where many are price takers in product markets and wage takers in labour markets, if wage costs rise, and they are unable to raise product prices to increase total revenue, their annual surpluses will be impacted. In some cases, some firms may face closure, with many of their workers forced to look for another jobs.

On the other hand, industries such as pharmaceuticals have an annual labour surplus 13 times more than their total wage costs. Any increase in wage costs would not affect the financial position of this industry. The jobs of their employees are secure, which also allows them the capital to provide for some form of career development and progression.

Interestingly, industries with high labour surplus ratios, including chemicals and electronics, also have higher labour costs per worker – where wages are higher compared to many other industries.

This is what Singapore wants to do in the name of implementing and buying into the ethos of the Industry Transformation Maps. If we succeed in industry upgrading, in driving a culture of pervasive innovation, then companies can move up the value chain to earn a higher labour surplus, and hopefully our workers can have job progression.

READ: A commentary on creating a culture of pervasive innovation in Singapore.

FOREIGN FIRMS STAND BETTER CHANCES OF GIVING WORKERS PROGRESSION

Another interesting finding in the course of my research is that local firms within the manufacturing sector have low surplus ratios compared to firms with capital ownership from foreign countries.

In fact, firms operating in Singapore with capital ownership from the US have the highest surplus of five times the total labour cost, based on figures from 2015. Workers in these firms are protected from rising wage costs.

In terms of total labour cost per worker, firms with capital ownership from UK and France top the list with almost S$100,000 per worker annually.

The implication is this – if we want to provide lifetime jobs to Singapore workers with progression consistent with Mr Chan’s vision, we need to continue to attract quality investment from developed countries. So government policy must continue to focus on attracting foreign companies here while ensuring that they also contribute to the creation of good jobs for Singaporeans.

Another conclusion from my research is that we have no choice but to upgrade our manufacturing sector, which is why the adoption of advanced manufacturing technologies including robotics and artificial intelligence will be important in spurring the growth of good jobs. 

So government policy must continue to spur this on, and companies must upgrade themselves.

This need is even more urgent now as many developing cities are catching up with us in terms of the costs of doing business in Singapore (whether logistical, administrative or after including government incentives) and as they move up the logistic supply chain.

From this broader, national perspective, Mr Chan’s new role for NTUC makes sense.

NTUC MUST WORK WITH OTHER AGENCIES

Another point raised by Mr Chan is that NTUC must work with MTI, MOM and MOE to ensure people are prepared for jobs of tomorrow.  NTUC alone cannot protect workers from rising wage costs as industry transformation is a national project.

In this context, NTUC must continue to work with MOM and Singapore National Employers Federation (SNEF) to provide training for workers. NTUC must also continue to engage bodies such as the Chinese Development Assistant Council (CDAC) to persuade workers to take part in training.

Mr Chan, being the minister for MTI, would be in the best position to see how this new goal of tripartism works to ensure a win-win outcome for workers, companies and the Singapore economy.

However, workers must also take matters in their own hands. Jobs will be lost if workers do not take the initiative to learn and re-learn. 

Tripartite partners must ensure that workers are given plenty of training opportunities and encourage workers to take advantage of existing schemes and programmes such as SkillFuture to upgrade their skills.

If anything else, Mr Chan’s remarks were a rallying call to action – to NTUC, government agencies, companies and workers. Job progression must be earned in this era of worker empowerment for sure, but it must also be a new mantra that Singapore collectively strives towards.

Chew Soon Beng is professor of economics and industrial relations at Nanyang Technological University.

SINGAPORE: Crafted to resemble human-likeness with natural looking skin and hair, Nadine, described by its makers as a social humanoid, greets a person when he enters the room, makes eye contact and remembers his face.

She smiles and listens intently as one speaks, cracking a joke occasionally. But when provoked, she gets upset too.

Made in Singapore, the artificial intelligence robot, which was unveiled by the Nanyang Technological University’s (NTU) Institute for Media Innovation in 2015, has made significant strides in the past three years, including the ability to recognise faces and remember conversations.

Plans are underway for another public showcase next month, and researchers hope that before long, Nadine will be able to walk as well as identify and grasp objects with her hands.

Once the domain of science fiction books and movies, the AI revolution has well and truly arrived — and it is not just in the form of walking and talking robots. The rise of AI has pervaded areas ranging from healthcare, retail, transport and banking to food and beverage as well as dating services, to name a few.

By 2020, AI is projected to create 2.3 million new jobs worldwide while eliminating 1.8 million traditional jobs, according to research firm Gartner. This was a point echoed by a recent study by the World Economic Forum which said the development of AI technologies will disrupt jobs but at the same time usher in unprecedented new opportunities.

Around the world including in Singapore, research on AI as well as its application can be seen in almost every sector.

READ: A commentary on the use of robots in hotels.

In healthcare for instance, scientists at A*star’s Genome Institute of Singapore have discovered the use of AI to help pinpoint roots of gastric cancer. 

The project, the findings of which were published last month, involved the creation of two new AI methods to scan the entire genomes of 212 gastric cancer tumours in a few months. According to the researchers, such an analysis would have taken 30 years to complete on a standard modern computer.

Chinese bike sharing platform Mobike, which has operations in Singapore, uses an AI data monitoring platform to make forecasts of supply and demand for bike rentals, and help improve the firm’s operational efficiency.

Many developers have also turned to AI to create apps catering to anything from consumers’ social and emotional needs to gastronomical desires.

For example, Replika uses AI to create a chatbot in a person’s likeness — learning from users to match their personality and becoming their best friend, as the app’s developers put it.

Homegrown dating service provider Lunch Actually has also launched Viola.AI, which analyses a couple’s compatibility and dishes out relationship advice, among other things.

Another Singapore startup Tabsquare recently unveiled “Aiden”, a “first of its kind AI engine” which enhances a guest’s dining experiences by constantly learning and building taste profiles and preferences.

According to research firm IDC, worldwide spending on cognitive and AI systems will grow to about US$19.1 billion this year, a 54 per cent jump compared with the amount last year. By 2021, the spending is projected to increase exponentially to reach US$52.2 billion.

READ: A commentary on the optimist’s case for automation and AI.

THE BEGINNINGS OF AI

For decades, the concept of AI has been around in literature and popular films. Even before the technology was available, people have been seized by the idea and its endless possibilities.

The roots of AI research can be traced back to the 1950s, said Professor Ong Yew Soon, chair of NTU’s School of Computer Science and Engineering.

At that time, computer scientist and mathematician Alan Turing proposed a test to measure a machine’s ability to exhibit intelligent behaviour that is indistinguishable from that of a human.

The first working AI programmes — which were able to play checkers and chess — were written in 1951. However, funding dried up eventually, as the lack of technology and slow computing powers held back the development of AI, said Prof Ong. Progress continued to be tepid in the following decades.

Professor Kevyn Yong, dean of ESSEC Business School Asia Pacific, added: 

It’s quite clear that the AI scientists (then) were limited by computational power and data – both of which are critical to advancing AI technologies.

The late 1990s saw the resurgence of AI, thanks to the advent of the Internet and advances in computational power among other factors, experts said.

In 1997, IBM’s Deep Blue super computer beat then-world chess champion Garry Kasparov. The feat made international headlines, as it marked the first time AI defeated the best human chess player.

The convergence of several factors in recent years has led to greater momentum. “Computers became faster, algorithms improved, and a large amount of data became increasingly accessible. New advances followed, with deep learning methods starting to dominate around 2012,” said Prof Ong.

Dr Justin Chan and Mr John DeCleene at research company Data Driven Investor and OC Horizon noted the slew of AI products which were rolled out in the early part of this decade — Google’s first self-driving car, Microsoft’s Kinect for Xbox 360, and Apple’s Siri.

Last year, the development of AI achieved another milestone when AlphaGo — a computer programme that plays the complicated strategy game Go — won a three-game match with world number one player Ke Jie.

WIDESPREAD USE

The rapid rise of AI in the last few years has resulted in such technologies being infused in everyday life, experts said.

Prof Ong noted that most of the current AI technologies focus on solving specific tasks where AI can surpass humans. These range from photo-tagging on social media, chatbots, loan approvals to language translation and digital assistants, he said.

Ms Sharala Axryd, chief executive of ASEAN Data Analytics Exchange, added: “(AI) tools that we use every day that perhaps we take for granted (include) Siri and (Amazon’s virtual assistant) Alexa.

READ: A commentary on the absurdity of smart speakers taking over the world.

The widely-used Google maps app also uses AI, and it has helped to improve people’s daily commutes, noted Prof Yong.

Across industries, companies are leveraging AI to enhance their business by performing repetitive tasks or improving efficiencies, among other things. Some firms and governments around the world are also turning to AI to forecast trends — a service currently provided by homegrown AI tech startup Scry, for example.

In the transport sector, Mobike’s Magic Cube, for instance, manages the company’s fleet of 9 million bicycles around the world. The firm provides up to 30 million rides a day in over 200 cities, generating nearly 40 terabytes of data daily.

The AI technology enables the company to pinpoint optimal locations and times to place its smart bikes, as well as map out the most efficient routes for the operations team to move around each city to manage the fleet, Mobike said. It added that the data can also be shared with city planners to assist them in planning transport infrastructure.

Cybersecurity and banking are other areas where AI is making its mark.

Multinational firm Darktrace — which has its regional headquarters in Singapore — created the first AI technology to detect cyber threats. The technology is able to learn and pick up abnormal activity in a network, without the need for prior knowledge of the threats.

Homegrown AI tech startup Sense Infosys, for example, also uses its AI system for streamlining data and identifying fraud risk anomalies, among other things.

Meanwhile, OCBC Bank has established an AI laboratory this year to look into applying the technologies to banking services.

Emma, a chatbot for renovation and home loans, is already up and running. Launched at the start of last year, it has since answered more than 80,000 enquires and helped to secure more than S$100 million in home loans, said Mr Ken Wong, OCBC Bank’s Head of AI Lab (Fintech and Innovation Group).

MYTHS AROUND AI

The rapid development of AI worldwide and its pervasiveness in everyday life has created some anxiety among the public, no thanks to the doomsday scenario often portrayed in books or Hollywood movies where AI robots run amok for instance.

“I think we’re still very far away from ‘sentient’ robots that we often see in Sci-Fi movies,” said Prof Yong.

To create such machines, scientists must first solve the mysteries of the human brain and how intelligence works in every social and cultural context imaginable. Then, they will need to build the technology, including the learning algorithms, based on the “perfect training dataset”, Prof Yong pointed out. “(These are) theoretically-possible … (but) I can’t see scientific feasibility anytime soon,” he added.

At this point, AI is extremely capable of analysing available data and recognising pattern, but it cannot make inferences or judgements, Prof Yong reiterated.

NTU’s Prof Ong said that while AI can perform particular tasks like humans such as cooking specific meals, it is very unlikely that machines will be able to exhibit “broadly applicable intelligence comparable to or exceeding that of humans” — not for the next 20 years at least, he added.

“Currently, we are seeing a rapid progress in the field of specialised AI … which will most likely continue in the years to come,” he said, adding:

In other words, we may not expect a robot replacing a chef in the very near future. Nevertheless, it is to be expected that machines will reach and exceed human performance on more and more tasks.

Presently, AI technology has not reached a point where it is able to develop new output possibilities beyond what it is programmed to do, said Dr Chan and Mr DeCleene. Even for the area of self-driving cars, where there is “significant hype”, introducing a high-quality AI product requires a significant amount of testing and further development, they said.

Although AI is advancing at a breakneck speed, being human also means being emotional — to be able to hate, love, be angry or sad, said Professor Louis Phee.

Prof Phee, who is the dean of NTU’s College of Engineering, had invented and commercialised the world’s first scarless surgery robot for stomach tumours. “These traits are difficult to understand, even for humans. They would be the challenges for AI scientists to solve in the future,” he added.

Prof Nadia Thalman, who created Nadine the social humanoid, noted that AI cannot surpass human intelligence “as long as the computers are made with processor chips”.

“I do not think it can be like a human brain, because it is all fast logic calculations, comparisons, statistics and programming, programmed by humans,” said Prof Thalman, who is also the director of NTU’s Institute for Media Innovation.

But she believes the gap between AI and humans could narrow considerably “if biotechnology improves over time”.

“We can imagine having robots, for example, built with real cells and organs … then if robots are bio-robots, the difference between humans and robots capacity will be lesser and lesser,” she said. But she stressed:

The myth that a robot feels or have desires — all are lies. A machine feels nothing and has no awareness of its condition in life.

READ: ​​​​​​​A commentary on the competitive edge humanity holds in a world of machines.

IMPACT ON JOBS

While worries over AI taking over the world from humans are far-fetched, there are legitimate concerns about its impact on jobs — specifically, taking over roles which used to be performed by humans.

In a research note, Dr Chan and Mr DeCleene predicted that roles in areas such as telemarketing, customer support, bookkeeping, reception work, sales and market research among others are “most likely” to be replaced by AI.

These roles have common underlying traits: They are “highly susceptible to automation”, the tasks involved are repetitive and there is a “high focus on manual efforts compared to thought process”.

Jobs that are least likely to be replaced by AI include managerial roles, positions that require expertise, and those that involve “unpredictable physical work”.

Dr Lin Hsuan-Tien, chief data scientist at AI startup Appier, noted that job displacements and the creation of new roles are inevitable in the face of new technologies.

For example, the role of a data scientist did not exist 15 years ago. Today, however, there is a shortage of such professionals in the market, he said.

Even as some jobs are destroyed by the rise of AI, new ones will be created. For a start, there will be demand for people to manage data and make sense of it, he said.

Mr Wong, from OCBC Bank, pointed out how his bank has hired more people for AI-related jobs since last year:

Besides data scientists, who develop AI algorithms and models, we are also hiring more engineers to manage these AI applications, and business managers who understand how to leverage AI within the business to increase efficiencies and improve customer experiences,

Apart from massively changing the nature and type of jobs, the rise of AI will bring about profound changes to societies around the world, the experts said.

It can boost economic growth rates and increase productivity, for example. With its wide application in almost every aspect of people’s lives, the possibilities are infinite.

Ms Axryd cited healthcare as an industry that would benefit substantially from AI. Patients can be diagnosed more quickly and accurately by apps designed to identify illnesses, she noted.

Meanwhile, businesses and organisations can also perform better when AI is used in areas that could be impeded by human biases, said Prof Yong.

“Information processing biases often hinder organisations from innovation because (they develop) biased customer insights due to human biases,” he said.

AI technologies can improve how organisations collect and process customer data by eliminating human biases. As a result, they can gather insights that create “real value for customers and society at large”, he added.

While there are untold benefits which AI could bring, there are also risks. For example, individuals could exploit AI for nefarious deeds such as hacking and weapons development, said Dr Chan and Mr DeCleene.

For now, the experts are divided on how fast the AI revolution will take place. Prof Ong noted that some experts predict “with 90 per cent confidence” that by 2070, AI can do most jobs at least as well as a typical human.

Dr Yu Chih-Han, the chief executive and co-founder of Appier AI, believes it could take even shorter, although it will be a “gradual and progressive revolution”. He said:

In 10 years, we will see a very different world.

There is no “theoretical ceiling” on how far AI can progress, Prof Yong reiterated.

“But if I had to choose one, it would be when human civilisation reaches the perfect understanding of how human intelligence works – and in so doing, it should be theoretically possible for human civilisation to build the ‘perfect’ AI; one that is completely indistinguishable from humans in every way possible,” he said.

SINGAPORE: The path ahead for the next generation of Singapore’s leaders will not be easy but their duty is clear, President Halimah Yacob said on Monday (May 7).

Opening the second session of the 13th Parliament, Mdm Halimah said there will be times of hardship, where they must demonstrate leadership and resolve. And there will be “moments of truth, where they have to stand firm on principles and ideals while seeking practical resolutions”.

“They will need to listen to the views and feelings of the people, and by their words and deeds, show that they have heard, yet never fear to lead and mobilise public opinion to support difficult policies in the long-term interest of Singapore,” she said.

“This is how they will earn the right to lead,” she added. “That right cannot be inherited.”

In each generation, she said, the people and leaders must work with one another, go through trials and tribulations together and forge their own bonds afresh.

LEADERSHIP WILL CONTINUE TO MAKE A ‘CRITICAL DIFFERENCE’

In responding to the challenges of their times, the fourth-generation leaders will work in concert with Singaporeans, Mdm Halimah said, adding that leadership will continue to make a critical difference to Singapore in an uncertain and volatile world.

A new generation of Singaporeans – with dreams, hopes and fears that are different from those of their parents and grandparents – is coming of age, she said.

“They dream of a bright future, and pour their energies into exploring fresh horizons and building a better world,” she said. “They want to see their parents age well. They hope for a fairer and more equal society.”

“Most of all, they are eager to take on responsibilities, participate in building and guiding Singapore, and step up to serve their community and country,” she added.

The new leaders, therefore, must “fire up and mobilise the spirit and energy of young Singaporeans”. “They must grow with the people they represent, embrace a diversity of views and ideas, and yet forge a clarity of purpose and unity of action,” she said.

WHAT IS NEXT FOR SINGAPORE?

Mdm Halimah noted that the fourth-generation leadership team is taking shape, and taking on more responsibilities. And they will have to confront the question: “What is next for Singapore?”

“Like their predecessors, the fourth generation leaders will uphold our foundational values – multi-racialism, meritocracy, incorruptibility, self-reliance, inclusivity and openness to the world,” she said.

“They recognise the constants of Singapore’s existence,” she added. “A small, multi-cultural city-state, with no natural resources, in the heart of Southeast Asia, must survive and thrive on the wits and will of its people.”

In her speech, Mdm Halimah outlined several “significant developments” in Singapore’s external and domestic environments that must be understood and dealt with. These include regional tension, terrorism as well as inequality and social stratification on the domestic front.

She pointed out that these developments can affect Singapore in “unexpected ways”.

“We need to watch them closely, tackle them resolutely, and make progress together,” she said. “We already have policies and programmes to respond to these shifts. These tasks will occupy us beyond this term of Government.”

Mdm Halimah noted that the imprint of the new leadership in developing and implementing public policies is starting to become evident. Over time, she said, these policies will be elaborated, refined and will produce results.