SINGAPORE: International travel is grinding to a virtual halt as the COVID-19 outbreak prompts a fast-growing list of countries to impose travel restrictions.

Most international flights could be suspended for at least several weeks, creating an unprecedented crisis for the global airline industry.

Asia’s airline industry has already been dealing with the COVID-19 crisis for several weeks, which has seen sharp reductions in passenger traffic not been experienced since SARS in 2003.

HUGE DROPS IN AIR TRAFFIC AT CHANGI TO BE EXPECTED

Even before the World Health Organization’s declaration of a pandemic, this COVID-19 outbreak had already become the worse crisis for Asian airlines in a few decades.

READ: Changi Airport’s passenger traffic fell 32.8% in February amid COVID-19 outbreak

READ: Commentary: Hit hard by COVID-19, Singapore Airlines may need to pursue deeper capacity cuts

Changi Airport has already announced a 33 per cent nosedive in passenger traffic for February on Friday (Mar 13).

This demand declined further in the first half of March and is expected to drop even more in the second half of March and April due to the wave of new travel restrictions announced by many more countries in recent days.

India, one of Changi’s largest markets, suspended all visitor arrivals on Mar 13. Australia and New Zealand, major markets for Changi, have implemented a new policy requiring all arriving passengers to self-quarantine for 14 days.

Singapore-Europe traffic will also decline sharply after Singapore’s fresh ban on all visitors and transit passengers who have been in Italy, France, Germany and Spain within the last 14 days.

Singapore’s earlier bans on passengers who have travelled to China and South Korea within the last 14 days have led to almost all flights from these two keys markets being suspended.  

Changi passenger traffic will likely drop by over 50 per cent over the next two to three months.

READ: Commentary: Explosion in COVID-19 cases – was South Korea just unlucky?

A recovery is possible in the second half if the virus is contained, but for the full year, Changi will almost certainly record a decline that surpasses the 15 per cent drop in 2003 due to SARS.

DOMESTIC TRAVEL TENDS TO RECOVER FASTER THAN INTERNATIONAL TRAVEL

Singapore and its aviation sector are hardly alone as the COVID-19 crisis is now impacting all airlines, airports and countries. But Singapore is somewhat disadvantaged as it does not have a domestic market.

While international travel is slowing to a crawl – and could stop entirely – domestic airline travel is generally less impacted.

Malaysia Airports, which operates Kuala Lumpur International and virtually all airports in Malaysia, reported a 30 per cent drop in international passenger traffic for February, similar to Changi’s, but a more modest 17 per cent drop in domestic passenger traffic.

In some Southeast Asia markets such as Indonesia, airlines have been expanding domestic capacity by reallocating aircraft from suspended international routes.

Demand for domestic travel in Myanmar, Thailand and Vietnam also have remained relatively strong while international traffic dropped significantly.

READ: Commentary: Novel coronavirus turns 2020 into a bleak year for Asian airlines

READ: Commentary: The ways in which the COVID-19 pandemic could unfold

There is a risk domestic travel could be impacted significantly and even stop entirely. For example, the Philippines has banned domestic travel to and from Manila in an attempt to contain and prevent the virus from spreading to smaller cities and smaller islands.

However, while domestic air travel may grind to a halt over the next month in Asia and elsewhere, domestic travel generally recovers faster than international travel once the global situation stabilises.

The domestic Chinese market is starting to recover but it will take more time for the international market to bounce back.

BAD NEWS FOR SIA

Countries such as Singapore that rely entirely on the international market therefore are likely to have a slower rate of recovery.

This does not bode well for the Singapore Airlines (SIA) Group, which has so far been slow to cut capacity to match the drop in demand, resulting in sharp load factor declines. 

Based on the several waves of cancellations announced to date (including the last announcement on Thursday), SIA Group has cut 19 per cent of flights for the February to May period.

This included a 16 per cent reduction for Singapore Airlines, a 21 per cent reduction for regional subsidiary SilkAir and a 23 per cent reduction for the group’s budget airline Scoot, based on announcements made.

SIA is expected to announce a new and much bigger wave of flight cuts soon, after accounting for recent developments in India, Europe, Australia and New Zealand. But even before these, demand across its network had declined at a rate that far outstripped SIA’s reductions in flights.

QANTAS LEADS THE WAY

Singapore’s only other local airline, Jetstar Asia, and its parent the Qantas Group have so far been more proactive at cutting capacity in the Singapore market.

READ: Commentary: COVID-19 emphasises the importance of Singapore’s free trade agreements

READ: Commentary: UAE fights COVID-19 while the rest of the Middle East drags its feet

Jetstar Asia initially announced on Feb 20 a 15 per cent cut in flights through the end of May. Jetstar Asia has since announced the cut would be expanded to 40 per cent for April and May, which will result in the grounding of the equivalent of seven of its 18 A320s.

Jetstar Asia has suspended services to all five of its Chinese destinations as well as Hong Kong and Taipei, leaving Jetstar Asia with 18 destinations, in ASEAN, Japan and Australia.  

Jestar Asia and all three SIA Group airlines have been encouraging crew to take voluntary leave, a sensible move which allows airlines to temporarily reduce flying without having to cut salaries or headcount.

Jetstar Asia’s parent, the Qantas Group, also announced last week cuts in Qantas-operated flights to Singapore as part of a 31 per cent reduction in Qantas Airways and Jetstar Airways capacity to Asia.

Prior to the start of the crisis the Qantas Group averaged 96 daily departures from Singapore including 87 from Jetstar Asia, seven from Qantas, one from Jetstar Airways and one from Jetstar Pacific. For now, this has been slashed by 40 per cent to an average of 58 daily departures. A much more significant cut is likely in the coming days.

But the SIA Group is much larger than Jetstar and the Qantas Group’s operations in Singapore, which could partly explain SIA’s slower response

Jetstar Asia is the smallest of Singapore’s four local airlines, flying 4.5 million passengers in calendar 2019. In contrast, Singapore Airlines carried 22.3 million passengers in 2019, Scoot 11.1 million and SilkAir 4.9 million.

ROUGH OUTLOOK FOR CHANGI AIRPORT AND SIA

The days ahead will be rougher for Singapore’s aviation industry.

Changi Airport handled 68.3 million passengers in 2019, up 4 per cent from 2018. Passenger traffic this year could dip below 50 million, which would mark the lowest figure for Changi since 2011.

The four Singapore based airlines are the most impacted. They account for around 60 per cent of Changi’s total passenger traffic when removing the relatively small number of passengers they carry on transit routes through Singapore.

Qantas and Malaysia-based AirAsia are also the largest foreign airlines in Singapore, each accounting for roughly 3 per cent of Changi’s total traffic, excluding AirAsia affiliates based in other countries and AirAsia X.

READ: Commentary: Why Singapore is better prepared to handle COVID-19 than SARS

READ: Commentary: COVID-19 emphasises the importance of Singapore’s free trade agreements

The recent sharp reduction in fuel prices does not provide much relief to airlines given demand is so low at the moment that airlines will struggle to achieve profitable even if the cost of fuel was zero.

Several major airline groups such as SIA are also significantly hedged, offsetting any cost savings from low fuel prices.

In fact, a steep hedge loss would put SIA’s remarkable record of never incurring a loss for a fiscal year in jeopardy. An annual operating loss is also possible if the COVID-19 crisis continues for several months.

For now, SIA is expected to post operating losses in the March and June quarters but could potentially return to profitability after, assuming the virus is contained. 

WHAT CHANGI AIRPORT AND SIA CAN DO

Qantas provides further food for thought on how Changi Airport and SIA could approach the next few months.

It has focused cuts on the A380, the world’s largest aircraft, by grounding all but two of its A380s. Several other A380 operators globally have similarly grounded a large portion of their A380 fleet.

Qantas’ increased reliance on smaller more efficient widebodies such as the 787 is sensible and should be followed by other airlines.

In contract, SIA has cut proportionally about as many flights on other aircraft as those flown by the A380

Relying on smaller aircraft also helps airlines mitigate load factor declines, maintain frequencies on key business routes and retain airport slots.

Airports could waive slot requirements, which require airlines to use their slots at least 80 per cent of the time or risk losing them, but many have so far been slow to grant airlines such relief.

Qantas’ recent move to extend capacity cuts to September is also noteworthy. Airlines including SIA should consider extending flight cuts beyond May and provide consistent yet reduced schedules over the next several months.

Ad hoc cancellations with flights being canned on different days each week have made it hard for passengers still flying to plan their trips.

RELIEF AND NIMBLENESS NEEDED

Overall, it has been extremely challenging for airlines to match capacity with demand during the COVID-19 crisis due to its fast-evolving nature. No one knows how long this crisis will last.

Airlines, already reeling from huge potential losses, need to be nimble and provide unusual ticket flexibility that recognises the challenges their customers are also facing.

Airports and governments need to provide relief to help airlines get through this crisis and return in full force when the market recovers.

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Brendan Sobie is the founder of Singapore-based independent aviation consulting and analysis firm Sobie Aviation. He was previously chief analyst for CAPA – Centre for Aviation.

SINGAPORE: On Mar 1, 2003, SARS hit Singapore. Over the next four months, we witnessed its spread through public hospitals and the community, infecting 238 people with 33 succumbing to the virus.

I lost a close friend, Alex, whom I had known since primary one. A visit by an overseas scientist further led to my being issued a Home Quarantine Order, and with that, the obligatory daily reporting before a CISCO video surveillance camera.

DEALING WITH SARS

Singapore’s biomedical scene was fledgling then – the first buildings in Biopolis were newly constructed.

Notwithstanding, scientists at the Agency for Science, Technology and Research (A*STAR) became one of the first globally to sequence and genetically map the SARS virus as well as develop a commercial test kit (with Roche Diagnostics).

We witnessed the mobilisation of the Singapore Armed Forces (SAF) to support contact tracing, electronic tagging of quarantine breakers and the conversion of military thermal sights to the now pervasive fever scanners. Novel research, clever engineering, good old-fashioned public health measures and the Singapore brand of public policy ensured that we beat the virus.  

Singapore was declared SARS-free by the World Health Organization (WHO) on May 30, 2003 – three months after the virus had arrived on the island.

Seventeen years on, we face a global pandemic. As of Mar 13, 2020, over 169,484 cases and 6,518 deaths from COVID-19 have been reported, with 226 cases in Singapore.

READ: Commentary: The ways in which the COVID-19 pandemic could unfold

While the situation in China and South Korea shows some respite, large outbreaks continue to evolve in Italy and Iran, with growing hotspots across every continent. Mathematical models indicate that the epidemic is only just beginning. Containment efforts have bought us precious time to understand what we have to deal with and to ready our health institutions for an anticipated surge.    

What has changed this time is that Singapore is now ranked as one of the top biotech and innovation locations globally – and that we are pulling above our weight to make a difference. We are also more prepared than before to deal with this outbreak.

DETECTING THE VIRUS

The Bioinformatics Institute at A*STAR supports the GISAID (Global Initiative on Sharing All Influenza Data) database, where genetic sequences of the COVID-19 virus are uploaded and shared. 

This permits analysis of how the virus mutates as it spreads geographically and over time, providing molecular clues as to how best to deal with it, as well as a precision tool to augment contact tracing.

READ: Commentary: Three scenarios if the COVID-19 outbreak gets worse

Working closely with the National Centre for Infectious Diseases (NCID), scientists at Duke-NUS Medical School successfully cultured the COVID-19 virus just one week after it landed in Singapore on Jan 23, 2020.

This group went on to become the first globally to develop a serological test for COVID-19, which detects antibodies produced by the body’s immune response against the virus, setting the stage for rapid testing and population surveillance. 

The National Public Health Laboratory, together with the public hospitals, developed and ramped up a diagnostic test for the virus in January 2020 that has allowed the Ministry of Health (MOH) to carry out more than 21,000 tests thus far, boosting our ability to detect infected cases.

Research laboratories across the island also joined the international race to develop diagnostic kits for laboratory use.

An A*STAR kit, jointly developed with Tan Tock Seng Hospital (TTSH), was deployed in public hospitals by early February, while 10,000 tests were shipped to support efforts in China.

READ: Commentary: Can vitamin C really help with your cold or even COVID-19?

Local biotech firms, Veredus and Acumen Research Laboratories announced their prototypes within weeks of the outbreak. The Veredus kit received its provisional licence just one month later, and was deployed by the Home Team in its laboratories to support screening at border checkpoints by early March.

A reliable diagnostic test is critical for outbreak and patient management.

The challenge remains that current tests are laboratory-based, which take time and entail additional logistics. Ideally, we want a point-of-care test with rapid turn-around time – somewhat like a pregnancy test kit. 

This will enable doctors at the frontline to diagnose COVID-19 in their clinics without having to send samples to hospital laboratories. One technical barrier is that such a test demands high sensitivity, so that we do not miss positive cases. 

COMING UP WITH A CURE

The COVID-19 virus is a novel one. About 20 per cent of patients develop serious illness and complications, and case fatality ranges from less than 1 per cent to as high as 4 per cent.

READ: Commentary: Hot and humid weather may end the novel coronavirus – as well as the development of a vaccine

A distant cousin of other coronaviruses like SARS and MERS, there is currently no proven treatment or vaccine for COVID-19. Given the high standards of care in our hospitals, as well as the tight network of public and university labs, Singapore offers advantages for companies to conduct drug development here. 

US biotech firm, Gilead Sciences, announced that it would be widening clinical trials here for its anti-viral drug, called remdesivir, for the treatment of COVID-19. This trial involves the NCID and other public hospitals, providing patients here with early access to the drug.

NCID will also support a leading biotech company’s push to develop an antibody treatment against the virus. Duke-NUS Medical School has announced that it will work with the Coalition for Epidemic Preparedness Innovations, and with US biotech company, Arcturus Therapeutics, to develop vaccines for COVID-19.   

ON THE DIGITAL FRONT

The fight against COVID-19 extends to the digital arena. Over at the integrated TTSH Operations Command Centre, data is continually streamed from different hospital systems, providing real-time situational awareness of its overall operations.

This has enabled local health authorities and TTSH to better plan and coordinate for the surge demand at NCID, deploying over 1,000 staff to support frontline screening and treatment in the outbreak wards, while still providing regular hospital care for patients. 

The new Real Time Location System, a tracking system, further strengthens the process of contact tracing.

Doctors at TTSH are also working with A*STAR to potentially employ computer vision and deep learning to detect lung infection on chest x-rays. This would enhance screening at NCID, and potentially in primary care, in the event of widespread community transmission of COVID-19.

Another innovation is the design and rapid prototyping of face shields to replace goggles used by staff managing COVID-19 cases. Wearing goggles for prolonged periods can lead to discomfort and facial imprints. This led a team from TTSH and NCID to leverage on 3D printing to develop cost-effective face shields for better protection, fit and comfort.

On a wider scale, we now face an information pandemic, comprising health advisories, scientific communications and a social media maelstrom generously peppered with fake news. 

One Chinese website has drawn close to three billion views, providing almost real-time count of infection numbers in every province and city, as well as countries across the globe. 

Official updates from MOH now come through both traditional and social media, while educational content from our universities are available online. All of these help counter the disinformation that digital channels may otherwise help proliferate.       

Chinese netizens have commented that Singapore’s handling of COVID-19 has been “zen”.

Singapore’s approach has garnered praise from the WHO and international experts.

I would put forth the view that SARS taught us the important lesson of needing to be prepared, and that our investments in science, research, and technology have provided game-changers which have made a difference.

​​​​​​​Dr Benjamin Seet is the Group Chief Research Officer at the National Healthcare Group in Singapore. He was formerly Executive Director of the Biomedical Research Council at A*STAR.

SINGAPORE: Singapore is not facing immediate risks of running out of food or essential supplies, said Trade and Industry Minister Chan Chun Sing on Monday (Mar 16), shortly after Malaysia announced travel restrictions into and out of the country.

“The Government has been actively working with essential firms such as NTUC Fairprice, Sheng Siong and Dairy Farm International to increase our stock of food and essential supplies over the last two months,” said Mr Chan in a Facebook post. 

“This means that we are not facing any immediate risks of running out of food or other supplies brought in by our retailers.”

He also urged people to “purchase in a responsible manner and to purchase only what you need”.

Singapore gets much of its food supply from across the Causeway, and many Malaysians cross over daily to work in Singapore. Singaporeans also cross over frequently to shop, holiday and for business.

READ: Malaysia reports 125 new COVID-19 cases; mosques in two states to suspend gatherings

In addition to building up the inventory of food and essential supplies, Singapore also has a robust multi-pronged strategy that ensures the country does not run out of essentials, Mr Chan said. 

“For example, we have local production capabilities for products such as noodles, infant milk powder and canned goods among others.

“In the event that we need to increase supply for our domestic consumption, we can ramp up quickly and easily to do so. We have also continued to diversify our sources of essential goods, for example we get a good amount of vegetables from China and even go as far as Ukraine to secure our supply of eggs.

“Although we are not facing any shortages, I urge everyone to continue to purchase in a responsible manner and to purchase only what you need. Otherwise, no amount of stockpiling will be sufficient,” he said.

Businesses that employ Malaysian workers who commute between Singapore and Malaysia daily may have to activate their business continuity plans, he said.

“If they need assistance, they should contact our economic agencies who stand ready to assist.”

READ: Malaysia bars citizens from going overseas, foreigners from entering country for 2 weeks to curb COVID-19 spread

Prime Minister Muhyiddin Yassin said on Monday night there would be a ban on Malaysians travelling overseas and on visitors entering the country under a restricted movement order imposed from Mar 18 to Mar 31.

Only shops selling essentials, including food stores and pharmacists, would be allowed to stay open, he said in a televised address.

The number of COVID-19 cases in Malaysia surged this week, exceeding 500 cases on Monday.

The rules are part of a “restricted movement order” established by the Malaysian government to prevent further spread of the virus, said Mr Muhyiddin.

While Singapore had on Sunday widened travel restrictions to ASEAN countries, it made an exception for Singaporeans and Malaysians using sea and land crossings with Malaysia.

Public gatherings and movements throughout Malaysia including religious events, sports meets, social and cultural activities will be prohibited, and schools will be closed, said Mr Muhyiddin. 

Mr Chan added: “We will continue to stay in touch with our Malaysian counterparts as the situation evolves. Our priority is to ensure that our people and our businesses are able to continue with their lives and their livelihoods.

“I am aware that many of these new restrictions and announcements may be quite overwhelming for many people. I ask for your continued trust and support as we work hard with all stakeholders to ensure that we get through these short-term challenges together.”

BOOKMARK THIS: Our comprehensive coverage of the novel coronavirus and its developments

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SINGAPORE: Three people were arrested after they attempted to rob a Liberian-flagged bulk carrier in the Singapore Strait on Monday (Mar 16), said the Ministry of Defence (MINDEF) in a media release. 

The Maritime and Port Authority of Singapore’s (MPA) Port Operations Control Centre received a report at around 5am that robbers had boarded the ship Sam Jaguar. 

By then, the ship crew had locked the robbers in the engine room, said MINDEF. 

To prepare itself to respond if the vessel entered Singapore territorial waters, the Republic of Singapore Navy’s Maritime Security Taskforce began to closely monitor the vessel and despatched the littoral mission vessel RSS Independence and the Police Coast Guard towards the location of the incident.

At the same time, the Information Fusion Centre (IFC) shared details about the incident with Indonesian authorities. A report was also shared with the Regional Cooperation Agreement on Combating Piracy and Armed Robbery against ships in Asia (ReCAAP), said MINDEF.  

The Indonesian Navy subsequently deployed two ships and a helicopter to hail and board the vessel in Indonesian territorial waters, which led the Indonesian authorities to arrest the three suspects. 

The crew on board were safe and unharmed, said MINDEF. 

Head of IFC Lieutenant-Colonel Gary Ow said that the result of this incident was due to “good cooperation and quick response” between Singapore and Indonesia’s enforcement agencies. 

“By working closely together with the shipping community and littoral states to monitor our waters and share information, we can quickly cue operational responses and keep up the pressure on sea robbers to bring sea robbery incidents down,” he said.