On exhibition weekends, thousands of people throng a jam-packed Suntec City looking for bargains.

Computer scientists are now studying their movements in a bid to understand, and eventually predict, human behaviour to better manage crowds.

Using supercomputers, two scientists at the the Agency for Science, Technology and Research (A*Star) are crunching the data from Suntec Singapore Convention and Exhibition Centre in a study that could enhance public safety and comfort at large events.

Said scientist Qin Zheng, from A*Star’s Institute of High Performance Computing: “We will be able to predict the congestion hot spots. The staff will have some idea where they should go to help manage the crowd and improve efficiency.”

To achieve the outcome, Dr Qin and colleague Hu Nan have built a computer model to simulate how thousands of people move about in crowded spaces.

They, however, need lots of data to make the model as accurate as possible.

This is where Suntec Singapore came to the rescue, providing closed-circuit TV footage from a two-day IT show earlier this year which 110,000 people attended daily.

The scientists wrote a computer programme to automatically identify clusters of people in the footage and track their movements within a 3D model of the venue.

This is helping them adjust the simulation model for maximum accuracy.

They are also experimenting with 3D stereoscopic cameras to record what a real person sees and how he moves in a crowded place, in a quest to make the simulation of human behaviour even more realistic.

“There are many mathematical models… they can avoid collisions, they can lead the agents (humans) to their destinations. But do they reflect the actual way humans perceive and behave? As human beings we don’t calculate the actual velocity every 0.1 second,” said Dr Hu.

The visual and movement data is being fed into the computer, which uses it to “learn” how a person moves given different circumstances.

Dr Qin likened the computer’s learning process to a child accumulating experiences as he grows up over the years, and hopes the computer can reproduce some of the finer points of human behaviour.

For example, while young adults may be constantly on the move, actively avoiding other people, elderly people have a greater tendency to stop and give way to others.

But all this realism would be useless if the simulation ran slower than real time as it could not be used to predict the future.

To solve this challenge, the scientists are trying to split up the simulation into smaller chunks and make them run on multiple processors so that they move up to 100 times faster than real time.

Besides Suntec Singapore, the researchers are in talks to try out their technology at a major shopping mall here that they declined to name.

Dr Qin said shopping malls pose additional challenges, with more blind spots caused by obstructions.

Emergency situations such as fire evacuations or terror incidents are also a challenge, as people may behave differently and data is scarce, he added.

Suntec Singapore chief executive Arun Madhok said the research will help his team understand how crowds react and enhance its agility in responding to different scenarios, including emergencies.

He added: “This academic-industry collaboration… is an important step to bringing technology and innovation to a commercial application with clear benefits for both the business and public.”

linyc@sph.com.sg

This article was first published on Dec 27, 2016.
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By medical standards, the risks of having a child at the age of 40 are unnerving enough to put a damper on any baby-making plans.

But more older mums are thumbing their noses at the gloomy statistics.

Think 40-something actresses like Halle Berry and Fann Wong, both of whom defied statistical odds and delivered healthy babies.

In October this year, 50-year-old singer Janet Jackson confirmed her first pregnancy and showed off her baby bump.

In fact, the number of women conceiving in their 40s has doubled over the past three decades in Singapore.

Last year, there were nine births for every 1,000 women aged 40 to 44, compared to 4.5 in 1985, according to figures from the Singapore Department of Statistics.

In contrast, the number of women having babies between the ages of 25 and 29 – considered the optimum age for motherhood – has depleted by 50 per cent in the last 30 years.

But is age just a number when it comes to having babies? To a certain extent, yes.

Advances in artificial reproductive techniques like in vitro fertilisation (IVF) have made it possible for couples to have babies later in life, especially for those with fertility problems, said Dr Tan Eng Loy, a consultant at the department of obstetrics and gynaecology at Singapore General Hospital (SGH).

That is because IVF boosts a woman’s chances of conceiving, regardless of her age, said Dr Yeong Cheng Toh, a consultant gynaecologist and reproductive endocrinologist at Virtus Fertility Centre Singapore.

Improvements in screening methods and better ultrasound equipment also mean that abnormalities and birth defects in unborn babies are detected more accurately early in pregnancy, according to the doctors.

Minimise the risks

These are three things older mothers should do to minimise risks during pregnancy and childbirth, according to Dr Tan Eng Loy, a consultant at the department of obstetrics and gynaecology at Singapore General Hospital.

1 IF YOU ARE TRYING FOR A BABY

See your doctor to ensure that you have good control of any existing medical issues like diabetes or heart conditions.

You may have to adjust your medication so that it does not affect your chances of becoming pregnant or your unborn baby’s health.

2 IF YOU ARE PREGNANT

Make an appointment with your gynaecologist as soon as your home urine pregnancy test shows positive results, at around five to six weeks, so that you will get proper antenatal care.

Stay up-to-date with screening tests such as those for Down syndrome, and detailed ultrasound scans.

You will also be checked for gestational diabetes, which is usually done between 24 and 28 weeks.

Read also: Govt to beef up support for young parents

3 IF YOU ARE IN YOUR THIRD TRIMESTER

Closer to your estimated due date, at around 39 weeks, you may be induced for labour to lower your risk of a possible stillbirth. Discuss this with your doctor.

A Finnish study has found that age, by itself, does not pose significant pregnancy and childbirth risks for a mother over the age of 35.

But her risk of complications – such as pre-term birth, a small baby and stillbirth – increases dramatically if she smokes, or is overweight or obese, and has pre- eclampsia or gestational diabetes, according to the study published in the Journal Of Maternal-Fetal And Neonatal Medicine.

What about recovery after birth?

Well, that depends on the woman’s health before pregnancy, Dr Tan said.

If an older mum is healthy and fit, she may have better stamina and recover from labour faster than a younger mum who is less fit or has medical issues, he added.

But even older mums with medical conditions, such as heart disease and diabetes, now have a better chance of enjoying a smooth pregnancy, thanks to advances in antenatal care.

For instance, SGH conducts high-risk pregnancy clinics thrice weekly to ensure that mothers are well looked after.

BIOLOGICAL CLOCK TICKS ON

Still, there are limits as to what medical science can do. It cannot change the fact that a woman’s fertility takes a nosedive after 35, making it harder for her to become pregnant, the doctors pointed out.

Dr Yeong said: “The media has highlighted many older women who have had successful pregnan- cies. But when it comes to biolo- gical advantage, there is a huge difference between a 20-year-old and a 40-year-old woman.”

A woman in her 40s has an approximately one-in-six chance of conceiving naturally with every cycle, he said.

Dr Tan added that if and when she gets pregnant, she also faces a higher risk of miscarriage.

Age is also the most important factor in determining whether fertility treatments like IVF work out, said Dr Yeong.

Women below the age of 35 have a 60 to 70 per cent chance of becoming pregnant through IVF. Those above 40 have only a 20 to 25 per cent chance.

While older mums may have medical advances on their side today, the risks should not be downplayed.

Take the odds of having a baby with Down syndrome. A 40-year- old mum’s risk of having such a baby is 10 times higher than if she were under the age of 30.

Dr Tan said: “Medical advances have helped us to detect unborn Down syndrome babies more accurately. But very little can be done to prevent them, other than conceiving at a much younger age.”

PRICE OF BEING AN OLDER MUM

Because they may require more screening tests and detailed scans, mums who wish to expand their families in their 40s should think about the expenses, financial services manager Fong Yong Hui said.

An example is non-invasive prenatal testing, a new test that screens for Down syndrome.

Women taking the test at SGH can expect to pay a subsidised rate of around $1,000. They cannot use their Medisave for it, Dr Tan said.

They may also need to be induced into labour closer to their due date. It is recommended that they deliver their babies before 40 weeks, to lower the possibility of a stillbirth.

“All of the above are likely to translate to increased costs,” he added.

Delaying motherhood also means that these mums will be close to retirement age by the time their child is ready for tertiary education, Ms Fong said.

With the estimated cost of raising a child in Singapore ranging from $200,000 to $1 million, juggling a child’s education funds and preparing for retirement can be a challenge.

Although older mums are often deemed more financially secure, Ms Fong said this may not be true.

“Ultimately, it boils down to her lifestyle. A 40-year-old woman who chose to live it up during her younger days may not be more financially secure than a younger mum who has been diligently saving since her early 20s,” she said.

“If you wish to have children later, it is important that you start saving as early as possible.”

• This article first appeared in Young Parents magazine. Young Parents, published by SPH Magazines, is available in both digital and print formats. Go to www.youngparents.com.sg to subscribe and for more parenting stories.

This article was first published on Dec 27, 2016.
Get a copy of The Straits Times or go to straitstimes.com for more stories.

Plans to redevelop Kallang Riverside Park could be on the horizon after a change of management earlier this year.

In response to queries from The Straits Times, both Gardens by the Bay and the National Parks Board said that Gardens had taken over the management of the Crawford section of Kallang Riverside Park and Marina Promenade in May this year.

Both areas will come under one of the three gardens under Gardens by the Bay – Bay Central Garden, which runs from Crawford Street to Raffles Avenue.

While Gardens did not reveal the plans it has for Kallang Riverside Park, developments are expected to take place later in Bay Central.

Although there have been calls for more amenities at the park, four of the five people The Straits Times spoke to said they would rather leave the park as it is.

Among them is founder and chairman of Waterways Watch Society, Mr Eugene Heng, whose non-governmental organisation has been at Kallang Riverside Park for the past 19 years since it was founded.

Home to about 500 volunteers, his NGO runs programmes for primary and secondary school students so they can learn more about the importance of keeping Singapore’s waterways clean.

“I just hope they leave this place as rustic as possible rather than commercialise it. Kallang Riverside Park is one of the last places located next to a developed area and yet is still reminiscent of the old Singapore,” said Mr Heng.

Kallang Riverside Park, which occupies both sides of the river, sees many dragon boaters and canoeists taking to the water, especially during the weekends.

Events organiser Bernadette Ordenes, 38, from expat dragon boat team Filipino Dragons (Singapore), said that the park has grown more crowded over the years with recent developments like the Sports Hub.

On weekends, the park is also a popular hangout for maids.

Ms Ordenes hopes that more amenities, such as toilets, can be built in the area as there is now only one available in the park, she said. Her dragon boat team trains on the Kallang River at least thrice a week.

The 15ha Bay Central Garden, which acts as a link between Bay South and Bay East Gardens, has a 3km waterfront promenade.

Gardens by the Bay started out as a project of NParks, but it later grew to become an independently managed organisation.

The largest garden, Bay South, officially opened in 2012.

Mr Ong Kah Seng, director of property research firm R’ST Research, said that Kallang Riverside Park and Marina Promenade’s prime location is a “strong rationale” for Gardens to be interested in taking over their management.

“If redeveloped… Bay Central will be remade into a mini Gardens by the Bay, but never to the extent where it is so commercialised,” said Mr Ong. “At most, a few lifestyle spots or commercial establishments will be built.”

kcarolyn@sph.com.sg

This article was first published on Dec 27, 2016.
Get a copy of The Straits Times or go to straitstimes.com for more stories.