SINGAPORE –

Singapore’s economy is expected to grow in the fourth quarter to avoid a recession, but the outlook is affected by the uncertainty surrounding the global trade from the Trump government.

Gross domestic product (GDP) for the October-December quarter is forecast to grow by 3.7% year-on-year, supported by a rise in factory production in November, according to a median Reuters poll.

While this would be an improvement seen from the contraction of 2.0% in the third quarter, analysts were cautious about the outlook for Singapore’s trade-dependent economy.

The government’s estimate of fourth-quarter gross domestic product is expected to be 8 am local time (0000 GMT) on January 3. “Look at the number of downside risks we face globally,” said Nomura economist Brian Tan. “You obviously have Trump, and what protectionist measures he can take.

China’s economic slowdown, the UK back to Europe and European elections also bring risks, while the domestic labor market is showing signs of weakness, Tan 2017 GDP growth of 0.7%.

In a recent central bank survey, the median forecast for economists was a 1.5 per cent rise in gross domestic product in 2017.

The government’s forecast for growth for the full year is 1.0 to 1.5 per cent, putting the economy on track for the weakest performance since 2009, when GDP shrank by 0.6 per cent.

The median forecast for 11 economists in the Reuters poll is that the fourth-quarter gross domestic product grew 0.6 percent from a year earlier and grew 1.1 percent in the third quarter.

Analysts said the government’s budget and the recommendations from the Economic Commission for the future, is expected in the first quarter, are not likely to contain measures to stimulate the short-term growth to a large extent. “It’s just possible … to provide some mitigation for the corporate sector, it will not significantly change the dial on the headline GDP growth,” said Selena Ling, director of fund research and strategy at OCBC Bank.

The Commission is responsible for finding strategies to maintain Singapore’s economic competitiveness and identify growth areas.

While most analysts believe the Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS) kept its exchange rate policy unchanged in April, some expect the central bank to ease as growth prospects are poor.

NatWest Markets Asian economist Vaninder Singh said in a recent research report that the fourth quarter, an increase of less than 1%, will promote the April monetary easing. “If we get such a figure, it will strengthen our confidence and call for a 1% reduction in repositioning,” Singh said. “Singapore’s major monetary mechanism is Singapore’s nominal effective exchange rate (NEER) policy band.

Such an up-to-date figure will provide more room for the Singapore dollar NEER to weaken the current policy context.

At its most recent meeting in October, MAS kept the policy unchanged. It relaxed its policy in April, since January 2015 since the third easing.

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Most Singapore seagrasses have not been sexually propagated for at least three to four years, and the scientists concerned are trying to figure out what is wrong.

The lack of sexual reproduction – the creation of new plants through flowers and seeds – may lead to a decline in the genetic diversity of seagrass populations, making them more susceptible to mass mortality.

This will harm the environment in many ways because seagrass meadows store up to 30 times more efficiently than rainforests and are key breeding grounds for marine animals such as dugongs in Singapore waters.

Hidden in the waves, often covered by more colored coral reefs, seagrass meadows dot the coast and ocean all over the country (see map).

Like most of the country’s natural heritage, they have been declining for decades, with about 40 per cent of the original cover lost to coastal development.

According to the National Parks Commission (NParks), Singapore has 12 seagrass varieties, 23 in the Indian Pacific region.

Since 2007, scientists and volunteers regularly monitor their health status.

In addition to their actual investigative work, they often see seagrass producing fruits and flowers.

Dr. Siti Maryam Yaakub, 35, has led a number of trips and said that because Singapore is a tropical country, seagrass should blossom and bear fruit throughout the year.

“We want to see them at almost every low tide.

But about three to four years ago, senior marine ecologists at DHI’s Department of Water and Environment began to notice that most of the flowers and fruits had ceased to exist.

Seagrass populations can grow by cloning themselves, and long-term surveys do see an increase in the size of some grasslands, such as those in Chek Jawa in the Ugan Group.

But Dr. Siti said the clonal growth – if Singapore ‘s seaweed is indeed being done, could mean that all new seagrasses are equally susceptible to stress factors such as disease, making it easier for the entire new population to die at the same time.

In addition, no seeds lying in the environment, new plants more difficult to come back.

Samantha Lai, PhD candidate at the National Laboratory for Marine Ecology at the National University of Singapore (NUS), says there is already one such case in Semakau Island.

In 2009, the island ‘s seagrass meadow suddenly died, and in addition to some of the scattered seaweed, the area was still barren, she said.

Dr Lai said environmental factors were also the culprit, but added that one of the consequences of not having enough sex was “not enough seedlings or seeds to help Semakau recover.”

Dr. Siti described the seagrass research as “very nascent” and acknowledged that there are a lot of researchers who do not understand but they “work hard to fill many of these gaps.”

This is the purpose of their current research, involving NParks in collaboration with the National University and DHI.

Dr. Karenne Tun, Director of NParks National Center for Biodiversity (Coastal and Marine), said that the three-year research project, by mid-2018, aims to better understand the segregation patterns of seagrass and assess how to restore them. For a variety of pressures.

“By assessing the status, connectivity and productivity of seagrass meadows in Singapore, we will be able to develop measures to protect seagrass, including restoration of their habitat.

“We’re just understanding the behavior of the seagrass ticks,” Dr. Siti said.

“Filling these gaps in our knowledge is the best chance for us to ensure that they continue to survive.

josehong@sph.com.sg

This article was first published on Dec 29, 2016.
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Green will be the colour for 2017 in the land transport sector.

Several changes and developments will pave the way for a more environmentally sustainable way of travel, starting with the opening of Downtown Line 3.

When this 21km MRT line stretching from River Valley to Expo opens by the second half of the year, it will encourage more people to leave their cars at home and take the train.

It will complete a 42km line that links the east of the island to the city centre and the north-west.

Hence, its full potential as a pan-island transit project will be realised.

Trains will not only reach new catchment areas, such as Jalan Besar, Kaki Bukit and Upper Changi, but also provide more convenient options to commuters who may not have to make transfers to complete a journey.

And if a breakdown occurs, say, on the East-West Line, commuters do not have to go far to get onto another line.

Meanwhile, people working in Tuas will get to ride a new line earlier.

The Tuas West Extension – a 7.5km line that goes west from Joo Koon station on the East-West Line – will open in the second quarter.

The extension, which was originally slated to open by the end of this year, will be a boon to those who work or have business operations in the Tuas district.

Despite its vastness, the area is not well served by public transport.

Those who have no choice but to drive today will have an alternative when the line opens.

The two new MRT lines will help boost daily rail ridership towards the 3.5 million mark, up from just more than three million today.

This, in turn, will potentially reduce car usage. The annual mileage clocked on average here has already dropped to 17,500km – down from 21,075km in 2006.

National University of Singapore transport researcher Lee Der Horng said: “In recent years, the bus contracting model, bus enhancement programme, bus service reliability framework, new rail financing framework, upgrade and renewal of train systems, all have contributed to make Singapore’s public transport system the preferred mode of travel.”

Elsewhere, a review of the annual growth rate cap on the vehicle population is on the cards next year .

Currently at 0.25 per cent, it could be cut to zero when the new certificate of entitlement quota starts in February 2018.

In line with its aim to make Singapore “car-lite”, the Government has already hinted strongly at a zero growth rate.

Prof Lee said this might prove to be “a culture shock” to people “who have long recognised driving as the most convenient mode of travel”.

“To a large extent, the city was designed to serve motorised vehicles,” he added.

For a successful shift from private to public transport, Prof Lee said a fine balance between “push and pull measures” must be in place.

In this vein, a national electric vehicle sharing scheme slated to be plugged in – possibly by the third quarter – might come in handy.

Of course, questions remain – such as how economically viable the scheme is without subsidies, and how practical it is for families to squeeze into the small bubble-shaped hatchbacks to be used.

But if the scheme takes off, it will contribute in a small way to cleaner air in the city.

So will two other changes slated for 2017 – implementation of Euro 6 emission standards for petrol vehicles in September, and a review of the current Carbon Emissions- based Vehicle Scheme (CEVS) by June.

Euro 6 is the strictest emission standard in Europe today. It stipulates a significant reduction in noxious tailpipe emissions, in particular nitrogen oxides and fine particulate matter.

Singapore currently enforces the Euro 4 standard for petrol vehicles and Euro 5 for diesel models.

By 2018, diesel vehicles here will have to conform to Euro 6 too.

Just as significant will be a revision to CEVS.

The current scheme, slated to run out by the end of June next year, dishes out tax rebates and surcharges according to how much carbon dioxide a car produces.

The revision is likely to also take into account other pollutants and, as a result, possibly be kinder to electric vehicles.

“We are heading in the right direction,” Prof Lee noted.

christan@sph.com.sg

This article was first published on Dec 29, 2016.
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There is a lesson buried in the past of small countries with long histories, said Minister in the Prime Minister’s Office Chan Chun Sing yesterday.

They lasted because they could “read the winds and ride the waves” of change in their environment and adjust to keep afloat.

The need to do it deftly is all the more important as Singapore lies in a region where, historically, small countries do not exist for very long, Mr Chan said in a speech at the launch of a book to mark the 20th anniversary of the S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies.

He called on the school to continue its work in identifying key regional trends and forces so that Singapore can anticipate the ever- changing nature of geopolitics in South-east Asia and make the right moves. “That is the only way small city states like us can survive to defy the odds of history,” he said.

In 1996, Mr Chan was assigned as an army officer to help founding director S R Nathan set up the Institute of Defence and Strategic Studies, which was renamed the S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies (RSIS) in 2007.

Unlike the Institute of Policy Studies and ISEAS – Yusof Ishak Institute, RSIS was never a pure academic institution, noted Mr Chan, who is also secretary-general of the National Trades Union Congress.

It is a place where officials from government agencies with international dealings, such as the Ministry of Defence and Ministry of Foreign Affairs, can take time off from their day-to-day work and think deeper about their fields, he said.

RSIS therefore produces research by individuals with a solid grounding in policymaking, he added.

He suggested using a simple measure to define RSIS’ success – whether it continues to help advance Singapore’s interest as an independent, sovereign country.

The book that was launched is titled Forward Engagement: RSIS As A Think Tank Of International Studies And Security In The Asia-Pacific. Edited by RSIS Associate Professor Alan Chong, it has 18 essays contributed by 23 of the think-tank’s academics and appointment holders.

Their essays, based on research done in the past 20 years, range from cyber security and religion to Singapore’s regional diplomacy.

In one chapter, RSIS professor of security studies Rohan Gunaratna recounts a briefing he gave, during which he told then Senior Minister Lee Kuan Yew that terrorists were targeting bars and restaurants in the region. Just days later, in 2002, bombs struck popular nightclubs in Bali, killing more than 200 people.

Prof Chong, who also spoke at the launch, said RSIS continues to pride itself as a research entity with close links to policymakers.

“The academic mission is qualified with policy needs in mind… RSIS not only provides research papers to government bodies, it assists them with the clout to convene gatherings of experts from Singapore and abroad to share knowledge and trigger productive debates on a variety of issues,” he said.

For instance, RSIS helps to disseminate information on how to counter the radical ideology that terrorists use in their propaganda to recruit fighters.

Forward Engagement is published by World Scientific and available at www.worldscientific.com for $168. It is sold online only.

This article was first published on Dec 29, 2016.
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Drones used by companies and government agencies to take photographs and conduct land surveys and inspections are crowding the skies, prompting an urgent need to prevent them from crashing into one another and possibly hurting people as they fall to the ground.

The situation has led researchers of Nanyang Technological University (NTU) to undertake a study to enable hundreds of these drones to fly safely and efficiently in Singapore’s urban airspace.

Essentially, they want to come up with a traffic management system for drones, much like how cars on the road have established traffic rules and infrastructure.

“Like our land and sea, the urban airspace is also a finite resource. With so many airspace users, there is a need to manage this urban airspace,” said Mr Mohamed Faisal Salleh, a senior research fellow at NTU’s Air Traffic Management Research Institute.

The institute was set up jointly with the Civil Aviation Authority of Singapore (CAAS) in 2013.

The project is likely to take up to four years to complete, and is led by Professor Low Kin Huat from the School of Mechanical and Aerospace Engineering.

The ideas are currently undergoing conceptual design and tested using computer simulations.

They will be tested in the open skies in 2018 in places like Tuas, away from crowded public areas but with sufficient building density to be a good test-bed.

The focus on drones for commercial and industrial use means hobbyists are unlikely to be affected by the programme, the researchers said.

In airspace management, a key part is to divide the space into air blocks – areas similar to lanes on a road – within which drones can be programmed to fly.

The researchers will also explore the feasibility of designated landing or take-off areas, and how existing infrastructure like roofs of high-rise buildings can be used as emergency landing sites to minimise the risk of injuring people.

One concept being tested is geofencing, in which virtual fences are set up around restricted areas so drones cannot fly over them.

Another is collision detection, which will help drones detect and avoid nearby drones.

Also being tested is the setting up of control stations across the island to track the number of drones in the air, their traffic flow, speed and how far apart they are from one another.

The study comes at a time when drone use is increasing among both hobbyists and commercial entities.

The CAAS, which regulates the commercial use of drones, has received more than 1,300 applications for operator and activity permits since June last year, when a revamped regulatory framework took effect.

It has also received about 1,000 activity permit applications, it said.

Of these, 87 per cent are for aerial photography, videography, surveillance or inspection.

lesterh@sph.com.sg

This article was first published on December 29, 2016.
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