Sunshine in US-China relations under Trump seems to extend beyond trade

I spent March and April at Hong Kong University teaching my course on globalisation and Asia. This coincided with a number of events and developments in this fast-moving and “Vuca” – volatile, uncertain, complex and ambiguous – world, including the Mar-a-Lago summit that was much discussed in class.

As I pointed out to the students (roughly half of whom are from China), the good news is that Donald Trump does not seem to be keeping his campaign promises!

The contrast between the Sinophobic offensive campaign rhetoric and recent developments in the evolution of the China-US relationship – “the most important bilateral relationship, bar none”, as we are often reminded – border on the hallucinatory.

The atmosphere in Mar-a-Lago was more than just cordial, sweetened by Ivanka Trump’s children Arabella and Joseph reciting poetry and singing a traditional folk song in Mandarin for Chinese President Xi Jinping and his wife Peng Liyuan. This was an unexpected scenario!

That was on April 9. Last Thursday, hardly a month later, media headlines reported the White House hailing a concluded US-China trade deal, according to which the Chinese will open their market in a dozen areas, including credit cards, natural gas and beef.

In this spirit of co-operation, Washington sent a senior delegation to the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) summit that ended yesterday, which until then it had been intent on boycotting.

There are noises about China engaging in the Trump Rebuild America Infrastructure Plan, while in turn the US may become a member of the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB).

Trade love

Thus, far from engaging in trade war, as many (including this author) had predicted, the US and China appear to be making trade love! Of course, in a Vuca world, everything is possible and this could be the proverbial calm before the storm. For now, things are certainly interesting and encouraging.

The sunshine extends beyond trade. In campaign rhetoric, in his inaugural speech, and in a number of caustic remarks (and tweets!) since then, Trump had intoned that his most poisonous bone of contention with China was North Korea.

To that end, he had sought to engage his Asia-Pacific allies South Korea and Japan and impose on the former the US Army’s Terminal High Altitude Area Defence (THAAD) anti-ballistic missile system. This was bitterly opposed by Beijing, which saw it as a means to spy on China.

In the meantime, another twist in the Asia-Pacific narrative occurred with the impeachment of the hawkish former South Korean president Park Geun-hye and the election of the far more dovish Moon Jae-in who has announced he is sending a senior delegation to Beijing to seek a peaceful resolution of the Thaad dispute.

Where is Japan?

It is too early to down the cup of Baijiu and shout “Ganbei”, as things could still go terribly wrong, but the tale does illustrate once again a point I have been frequently stressing, including in this column: Japan is out of sync with what is happening in the world generally and in its Asia-Pacific neighbourhood especially.

The Japanese narrative of the period from roughly 1895 to 1995 is one of outstanding success. From feudal Asian backward isolation, Japan, alone among non-Western nations, became both a major industrial and military imperial power.

It lost World War II, but this seemed to be a temporary hiatus in its rise. Less than two decades after its devastating defeat, it astonished the world with its “economic miracle” – marking the first time, to my knowledge, that the terms “economic” and “miracle” were made contiguous!

Throughout this century of brilliant – even if at times extremely bloody – ascent, Japan never had any Asian allies: only Asian colonies! It had three successive Western allies: Imperial Britain from 1902 to 1922 (during which it colonised Korea); Nazi Germany from 1938 to 1945 (during which it waged implacable war on China and most of South-east Asia, with tens of millions of deaths, including civilians); the US since 1952, during which it has been able to perform the economic miracle while riding on American security coat-tails.

Its defeat in World War II notwithstanding, it was able to retain its leadership position in Asia by virtue of having been transformed from the US’ most hated enemy to its most pampered protege. Japanese “foreign” policy, especially vis-a-vis Asia, was decided in Washington, not in Tokyo.

Though denied an active military role by virtue of its US-imposed “peace Constitution”, it supported the US in the Korean and Indo-Chinese (Vietnam and Laos) wars by providing logistic support, as well as R&R (rest and recuperation) facilities for American soldiers, and repair and maintenance facilities for combat ships and planes.

Tokyo also followed to the letter US instructions in refusing to recognise Beijing as the legitimate government of China, opting instead for the renegade government of Chiang Kai Shek in Taipei.

It was only after Richard Nixon’s historic visit to Mao Zedong in 1972 – taking Tokyo totally by surprise – that then Prime Minister Kakuei Tanaka sheepishly hastened to Beijing in his footsteps.

In the 1980s, as the Japanese economy soared and the American economy plummeted and the relationship was marked by quite acute “trade friction” (boeki masatsu), when the Japanese economy was seen as overtaking the US economy, there was a certain xenophobic resentment of the US, illustrated by publications such as The Japan That Can Say “No” by the late co-founder of Sony Akio Morita and former governor of Tokyo Shintaro Ishihara, and by the coinage of the term “kenbei” – contempt for America.

Since 1995 – the year of the Great Hanshin earthquake – things have been going downhill for Japan: The economy has stagnated in a deflationary spiral, there was the Fukushima nuclear disaster (2011), and China’s gross domestic product surpassed Japan’s in 2010.

For the previous 100 years – 1895 was the year Japan defeated China in the first Sino-Japanese war – Japan had dominated China, a country for which many Japanese felt contempt.

It is for that reason, among others, that Japan never felt compelled to acknowledge, let alone apologise for, all the crimes against humanity it perpetrated in China. Former Tokyo governor Ishihara, to cite only one example among many, stated the Nanjing massacre never occurred!

Since coming to office in 2012, Prime Minister Shinzo Abe, notwithstanding his nationalism, has been fawning vis-a-vis Washington and used that as a rampart to constrain China. He enthusiastically supported the Trans-Pacific Partnership in what was seen in Tokyo as fundamentally a US-Japan-led bilateral deal to ostracise China.

He followed the American lead in being the only major Western or Asian economy not to become a member of the Beijing-led AIIB. He paid an official visit to Pearl Harbor – nice, but not necessary as Pearl Harbour was not a crime against humanity – while still refusing to visit Nanjing. Japan was not represented at the BRI summit.

Winds of change

When Trump was elected, Abe was the first head of state to go to pay tribute – in the form of a gold putter – and bask in the balmy breeze of Mar-a-Lago. Trump’s bombastically cacophonic anti-Chinese tirades were undoubtedly sweet music to his ears.

Now, suddenly, unexpectedly, but strongly, the winds have changed. As the Xi-Trump romance seems to blossom, including through bilateral trade deals, participation in the BRI summit, probable membership of AIIB, Tokyo stands out pathetically as the jilted lover left holding the empty can.

It’s an interesting spectacle to watch, but also quite distressing and in many ways alarming. The winds may change again and blow in Tokyo’s direction. But in whatever direction it blows, it is an ill wind that bodes potential danger.

As a Frenchman born in 1945, my generation – in contrast to my father’s (World War II) and to my grandfather’s (World War I) – has lived in serene peace. There are a variety of factors that have determined this situation, but only one really matters: Germany has made peace with and unconditionally expressed apologies to its former victims.

There will be no solid durable peace in the Asia-Pacific until and unless Japan makes peace and unconditionally apologises to its former victims, China and Korea especially. It would be splendid if the current winds could make Tokyo wake up and face this reality. The peace and prosperity of future Asian generations depend on it.

The writer is emeritus professor of international political economy at IMD business school, with campuses in Lausanne and Singapore, and visiting professor at Hong Kong University.

There is nothing singular about a newly elected president enjoying public affection during the honeymoon period, but the popularity of South Korea’s new president is rather peculiar.

What captivates the hearts of President Moon Jae-in’s supporters, or fans, is the person himself rather than his political ideals and statecraft skills.

His affectionate nickname “Inie” or in-words such as “Moon-tem” or “Inie goods” — referring to popular merchandise related to him — have made the president something quite close to a pop idol in the eyes of the political audience.

The most easily accessible product for his admirers is his book “Moon Jae-in’s Destiny,” an autobiographical memoir of his friendship with the late liberal President Roh Moo-hyun, his role in the Roh administration and personal life.

The book was published back in 2012, acting as a preview for Moon’s announcement for his presidential bid that year, but has been shelved since Moon’s election defeat. However, it once again found its way into the public spotlight, this time as a special limited edition with additional photos featuring Moon from last year’s candlelight rallies to this year’s election campaigns.

According to major book sellers here, this edition stood as one of the top five bestselling books as of the third week of May, following Moon’s swearing-in as president on May 10.

Also, though not tallied in the book score, the Asian edition of the magazine Time which featured Moon on the cover sold out even after additional printing.

Moon’s other books, including “The Republic of Korea asks, Moon Jae-in answers,” made their way to the front of the shelves over the past weeks.

The popularity was especially evident among women in their 20s and 30s, who were part of the nation’s young generation to support Moon and his liberal Democratic Party of Korea during the campaigns.

“I already had a copy of Destiny, but wanted a special edition as well to celebrate and remember the election of a president which I have so dearly longed for,” said Kim Min-ki, a 34-year-old teacher and mother living in Gyeonggi Province.

Kim, who also bought several copies of Time, playfully complained of a lack of “Moon items” in the market for fans to purchase.

“I sincerely hope that more merchandise featuring Moon will hit the market soon enough because, right now more than half of the nation is more than willing to pay for such goods and the money could be put to good use, such as helping the underprivileged.”

Some attributed the new president’s soaring popularity to his “good looks” but his set of actions since inauguration and the consequent public responses seem to suggest that there are plenty of other reasons.

According to local pollster Gallup Korea last Friday, 87 per cent of the respondents answered that Moon would “do well” in state affairs. The figure more than doubled Moon’s final turnout in the May 9 election — 41.1 per cent — suggesting a considerable number of people who have turned in favour of Moon during his first few days in office.

Taking office with no transition period, Moon at once set to implementing his campaign pledges, starting by a move to boost employment and to promote employment conditions.

He also gestured at opening up to the media and public, clearly distancing himself from ousted predecessor Park Geun-hye who was frequently criticised for her way of communicating with the media and public.

But the real clincher was his attitude during the May 18 Democratization Movement ceremony in Gwangju last week. Not only did he make the first presidential visit to the memorial event since year 2013, but he also went viral for shedding tears over the victims’ tragic stories. The scene of the red-eyed president hugging a memorial speaker, whose father had died back in the 1980 uprising, touched the nation’s heart.

Apparently, it is not just South Koreans who are going wild over their new state leader. A Moon Jae-in fan club account on China’s social network channel Weibo gathered over 50,000 members by late last week, sharing Moon’s daily schedule and undiscovered photographs.

The true drive behind such sudden enthusiasm, pundits pointed out, is the political aspiration of a crowd which has remained restraint during the past conservative governments.

“This trend (of consuming Moon-related products) reflects an unprecedented public sentiment which wishes not only to support Moon as a politician, but also to take after the person he is,” said culture analyst Kim Sung-soo.

Such fervent yearning, however, could act as a double-edged sword for a freshly inaugurated president who has sworn to achieve social unity, he added.

“A large part of the people’s love for Moon is based on emotions and personal taste, not on policies or ideologies,” he said.

“This kind of emotion may easily turn to hate against those who do not agree.”

Yoon Pyeong-joong, professor of political philosophy at Hanshin University, also claimed that the strong fandom could lead to a side effect of deterring Moon’s attempts to embrace opposing power groups.

Reflecting such concerns, conservative opposition lawmakers have been voicing out their complaints over Moon’s fans’ activities.

“I urge for the pro-Moon faction and Moon fans to disband,” said Rep. Joo Ho-young of the People’s Party last week, blaming Moon supporters for self-righteousness.

To this, a number of Moon fans refuted, claiming that there is “no organisation to disband in the first place.”

“We don’t attend meetings, don’t take orders (unlike the pro-Parks), we just do what we feel like doing and somehow end up getting along with other Moon fans, that’s all,” said one of the popular screen shots shared by Moon supporters on the internet.

The father of a 10-year-old boy in Phuket, Thailand is offering a Bt5,000 (S$201) reward to anyone who can offer information that will lead to finding a foreigner who had assaulted his son.

The boy was repeatedly hit by the foreigner for doing his job of collecting a Bt10 fee from the public who used the toilet.

A CCTV footage of the incident, which was widely shared on social media, showed the man becoming aggressive towards the boy after a short discussion.

The foreigner was dressed in a light blue t-shirt and was accompanied by his friends.

What do you do when your destination is three kilometers away from the nearest train station? It may be a little too far to walk.

What if you have to change trains several times to reach a location, even though the most direct road route is a relatively short distance?

Car-sharing schemes have recently been gaining attention as a convenient way of getting around.

Late last year, three ultra-compact electric cars appeared at a station on National Highway Route 1 in Chiyoda Ward, Tokyo.

It was set up as part of a feasibility study being conducted by parking-lot operator Park24 Co., the Land, Infrastructure, Transport and Tourism Ministry and other organisations.

“It’s the first initiative in Japan [for a station to be set up] on a road. The convenient location is useful even for people who return home late from work,” said Tomoya Watanabe, 30, an employee of Park24’s management division.

Users can borrow vehicles at any time of the day and return them to any available parking station.

By using the vehicles together with public transport, journey times to a destination can be drastically shortened.

A dedicated app allows users to check the availability of stations and vehicles at about 100 locations in Tokyo and reserve vehicles just 30 minutes in advance.

The main vehicles used in the study are single-seater Coms, which have a small trunk and a range of about 50 kilometers.

They run quietly, and the windows can be opened.

The i-Road motor-tricycle, which is not available for sale to the general public, is also used in the trial, and training lectures for this car are mainly held on weekends.

Hidenori Suzuki, 31, who took part in one of the lectures, struggled to get accustomed to the three-wheeled vehicle’s handling.

“It’s hard to drive at low speeds because it has rear-wheel steering,” Suzuki said.

The transport ministry intends to seek further co-operation with the operators of public transportation systems and car-sharing services to promote their use in the future.

Car-sharing schemes using ultra-compact vehicles that can be dropped off at multiple locations have the potential to make getting around more convenient.

TAIPEI, Taiwan – A trio of students from National Taiwan University of Arts have made popsicles with dirty water to draw public attention to problems with Taiwan’s water sources.

Their video, “Polluted Water Popsicles”, went viral on social media after it was posted Tuesday, with 1,559,100 views on its Facebook page as of Friday evening.

Over the course of a year, three students majoring in visual communications – Guo Yi-hui, Hong Yi-chen and Cheng Yu-ti – travelled to 100 spots in Taiwan to collect water for their graduation project.

In their project, the 100 popsicles made with the water are ranked in order from dirtiest to cleanest.

The worst-ranked popsicle is made with water from Keelung Harbor. Students said that water from the harbour had coated their water bottle with oil and grease.

By contrast, they said, water samples from Taitung and other parts of Eastern Taiwan were much cleaner.

Guo told The China Post that they originally planned to freeze the polluted water into popsicles, but realised it would be too tough to keep them from melting at the exhibition. So they encased the water samples in polymolds instead.

“We hoped to use the contrast and conflict between the pretty popsicle wrapper and the polluted water inside to let the society understand the importance of clean water resources,” Guo said.

The wrapper of each polymold popsicle are carefully wrought and beautifully detailed.

“We designed wrappers using colorful geometric shapes that represent the polluted particles in the popsicle inside,” Guo said.

Asked which Taiwan water source had left the deepest impression on them, the three named a park in Sanchong, where they collected a sample for popsicle No. 5.

The water they collected was teeming with apple snails, which farmers consider pests because of their rice grain-munching tendencies.

The students said that after creating a popsicle out of the water retrieved from Sanchong Park, they would present it to people, who would exclaim at how pretty and edible it looked.

Their enthusiasm would dampen quite a bit upon finding out that the popsicle’s pink “berries” were in fact apple snails, the students said.

Guo said that water for popsicle No. 7 was collected from a stream near their school in Banqiao, New Taipei City, which by her description was “extremely stinky.”

The trio, along many other students from universities in Taiwan, are showcasing their projects at the 2017 Young Designers’ Exhibition in Taipei World Trade Center Exhibition Hall 1, which runs to Monday.