Taipei – Taiwan could become the first place in Asia to legalise gay marriage on Wednesday when a court makes a landmark ruling on whether to allow same-sex unions.

Activists are optimistic the decision will go in their favour, with growing momentum behind the push for equal marriage rights on the island.

But there is also anger among conservative groups who have staged mass rallies against a change in the law as the debate divides society.

Campaigners for and against gay marriage are expected to gather in central Taipei on Wednesday afternoon.

The decision itself will be posted online by the judiciary at 4:00 pm (0800 GMT).

A panel of 14 grand justices will make the ruling in a case that centres on whether Taiwan’s current law is unconstitutional.

Taiwan’s pioneering gay rights campaigner, Chi Chia-wei, is one of the petitioners who has brought the case to the constitutional court.

After 30 years of activism, Chi, 59, told AFP he is “100 per cent confident” the ruling will go in his favour.

He urged the judges to allow gay couples to register to marry the next day if they approve a change in the law, rather than giving the government a longer timeframe to implement the decision.

But most activists and legal experts expect there will be a delay between the decision and its enactment by parliament, which is responsible for changing the law.

At the heart of the case is a clause in Taiwan’s Civil Code that an agreement to marry should be made between a man and a woman.

Chi wants the court to interpret whether that contravenes elements in Taiwan’s constitution which guarantee equality and freedom of marriage.

The decision is binding, so a ruling in his favour would pave the way for same-sex unions to be legalised.

The other party bringing the case is the Taipei city government, which has been rejecting marriage applications by same-sex couples and is seeking clarification of the law.

A majority of at least 10 judges need to agree on the ruling.

‘Historic’ day

For the first time ever, the judiciary will release the decision simultaneously in Chinese and English, an indication of the level of international interest.

The ruling is likely to reverberate around the region, with calls for marriage equality rising in a number of countries, including South Korea and Japan.

Lawyer Huang Di-ying said the court’s decision would be “historic”.

“It will be a barometer of human rights protection in the region as Asia follows the United States’ and Europe’s steps to recognise same-sex marriages,” he told AFP.

Taiwan is seen as one of the most progressive societies in Asia when it comes to gay rights, and momentum has been gathering since President Tsai Ing-wen – who has openly supported marriage equality – came to power last May.

The legislature has also made more progress than ever, with proposals to amend the Civil Code, passing the first reading in December.

However, as well as huge pro-gay marriage rallies, hundreds of thousands have gathered to demonstrate against legalising same-sex unions.

Conservative and religious groups in Taiwan say that it would destroy family values.

“Family conflicts will increase and the whole definition of marriage will be changed,” said Andrew Chang, a spokesman for an anti-gay marriage group Alliance of Religious Groups for the Love of Families Taiwan.

“Ancestral lineage and family structure will all be disrupted,” he added, saying he believed having sex with someone of the same gender was “unnatural and harmful”.

Thousands of monks and well-wishers, including the prime minister and Cabinet members, joined a royal merit-making ceremony to pay tribute to the late King Bhumibol Adulyadej and also bless Her Majesty Queen Sirikit at the Dusit Palace on Tuesday.

The events were held on the orders of His Majesty King Maha Vajiralongkorn and presided over by Privy Council President Prem Tinsulanonda and the Supreme Patriarch.

Prime Minister Prayut Chan-o-cha, Cabinet members and civil servants also attended the events.

Prem paid respects to the royal portraits of the late King and HM the Queen before Supreme Patriarch His Holiness Somdet Phra Ariyavongsagatayan led 175 Buddhist monks in chanting holy verses.

Another prayer session was held to pay respects to all ancestral kings and the image of Phra Siam Devadhiraj as well as to offer blessings to the Queen.

On a quiet midweek afternoon, five days before the third anniversary of the coup, Somchai Pisankhate, a 60-year-old motorcycle taxi driver based in the usually crowded Victory Monument area, said in a tired voice: “Look around you. Don’t you think it’s rather quiet for a travel hub?”

Evidently drained as he looked for a prospective passenger, Somchai recalled when the area, once the prime transit centre for Bangkok commuters, was way more lively.

“There were street vendors everywhere around the area we are standing on now. And there were pedestrians and passengers who were attracted by the street food and cheap clothes,” said Somchai, who has been a motorcycle taxi driver for nearly a third of his life.

“But now since all the stalls have been removed from the picture, there are fewer people and fewer potential passengers, too.”

Somchai said he understood the National Council for Peace and Order’s effort to bring back, improve, and keep order in society.

“But this is like an ecosystem,” he said. “You know, you cannot just take out one species and hope the rest in the system will remain unaffected, because we are ‘affected’.”

Three years ago, the country was stuck in an impasse, causing a standstill in parliamentary politics and also the daily lives of the people.

The junta stepped in and said they would “return happiness” to the people. The step has had a dramatically different affect on people.

Some have had their high hopes realised after the military took charge, while others have suffered more over the past three years, being deprived of their rights.

While both sides compete for their piece of “happiness”, citizens such as Somchai feel they have been left out of the equation.

Before leaving to give a ride to a high-school student, Somchai hastily continued his outlook.

“This is why democracy is essential, I guess,” he said. “Politicians, no matter how corrupt people say they are, actually have to listen to us because they need our votes. Unlike this order-keeping regime which comes and goes and does not have to listen to us.”

Sakchai Pairoh, 43, who lives hand-to-mouth as a taxi driver in the centre of Bangkok, expressed a similar viewpoint.

“I think things have seemed slow and stagnant in the past few years,” he said.

As he struggled to make a turn in jammed traffic, Sakchai said that if it had not been so quiet he would have made a decent amount of money that afternoon.

“It might be true as people are saying … that the economy is very, very bad,” he said.

He said that he noticed people are more careful with money.

In the central business district, which used to be a goldmine for taxis, drivers now find it more difficult to get a hire.

Asked whether business has been affected by online services such as Uber and Grab, the veteran driver said: “I’ve adapted to the change, too. I’m also on Grab. Still, things are slow unlike the last five years or so.”

He said he had not quite received his share of “happiness”. “I don’t blame them [the government] and I totally get their good intention. But we have to admit that maybe they don’t know what they are doing, hence the ailing economy right?

“They are not professional in the governance area, so I think it’s best for everyone to return the work to those who are.”

In the area known as the fashion and lifestyle hub of the middle to upper class – around the area of Siam Square, in the Bangkok Art and Culture Centre – one citizen said she was “elated to be under the politician-free regime”.

Retired government official Samruay Petchpong enthused that the country was so much better now because there was peace in society and stability in Parliament.

“I’m happy for the country now that there are no demonstrations in the street. People can live peacefully,” she said.

“And I’m happier now compared to three years ago also because now we don’t have nepotism to cripple the system. I didn’t like that very much.”

Student Thipparat Songsang, 20, had a less than optimistic view of politics.

“I don’t know. I’m moderately happy as life is supposed to be,” she said.

“But I don’t think it has anything to do with politics. Politics is kind of distant.

“Things are all the same to me no matter how politics changes. The poor stay poor and the rich stay rich. And I still see the same old problems in the deep South, here in Bangkok and everywhere. What’s the difference?”

His Majesty the King and HRH Princess Maha Chakri Sirindhorn on Tuesday had their representatives provide flower vases and baskets of items to those injured in the bomb attack at Phramongkutklao Hospital on Monday.

The hospital resumed services on Tuesday at the building hit by the bomb but the room where the attack took place remained sealed off.

Security there has been reinforced at the entrance of the building with officials checking bags and belongings of those wishing to enter.

Air Marshal Pakdee Sangchutho, representing the King, gave the vases of flowers and baskets to those wounded in the bombing while the Princess sent her adviser Tirawat Sucharitkul to present flower vases to the injured.

Colonel Dr Surasak Tanudsintum, the hospital’s deputy director, said that of 22 people injured and treated at the hospital, 14 had already returned home, and seven were expected to be able to return home on Tuesday afternoon.

One patient who suffered a broken jaw was still in the intensive care unit, but is likely to be discharged within a week.

Surasak admitted that some security cameras in the hospital were out of order.

Nongpen Rungpetchwongse, deputy director-general of the Rights and Liberties Protection Department, visited the injured at the hospital.

She said she came to give them moral support and notify them of their rights to compensation and preliminary healing process under the law.

Officials have contacted those who already returned home, she said.