KUMAMOTO – Three weeks after deadly earthquakes battered Kumamoto Prefecture and other parts of Kyushu, demand for temporary housing looks likely to outstrip supply. Recent surveys have revealed that the tremors destroyed or badly damaged about four times more homes than initially estimated. Furthermore, delays in constructing temporary homes are compounding the problem and prolonging the time thousands of evacuees will have to stay in shelters.
On Wednesday, the prefectural government announced 31,025 homes had been totally wrecked or badly damaged by the earthquakes. At the end of April, the prefectural government unveiled a plan to provide 4,200 temporary housing units, a figure based on an estimate that 8,000 homes had been destroyed or badly damaged. With the high likelihood that the figure will now be insufficient, the prefectural government is carefully examining how many units are needed and will consider constructing more.
One week after the April 14 “foreshock,” the prefectural government had confirmed that about 10,000 homes were damaged, of which an estimated 8,000 had been destroyed or badly damaged. Its estimate for the number of necessary housing units was based on the example of Iwate Prefecture following the Great East Japan Earthquake in March 2011. Referring to the Iwate Prefecture case, Kumamoto Prefecture determined it needed housing units for 35 per cent of families whose homes had been destroyed or badly damaged by the disaster.
As a result, Kumamoto Prefecture calculated it should construct 2,100 prefabricated housing units. It believed it could secure another 2,100 units of what is known as “minashi kasetsu,” or quasi-temporary housing, including privately rented housing such as apartments. At the end of April, it allocated ¥14.3 billion (S$0.20 billion) for these projects.
However, further surveys have revealed that the extent of quake damage is significantly larger than originally thought.
Plans in place as of Wednesday would supply enough temporary housing units to cover only 13.5 per cent of all destroyed and badly damaged homes. This is lower than the 19.4 per cent for the 1995 Great Hanshin Earthquake and the 21.4 per cent for the 2004 Niigata Prefecture Chuetsu Earthquake.
Construction itself has also been slow. Work finally began in the town of Kosa and the village of Nishihara on April 29, 15 days after the foreshock.
“Strong aftershocks continued for days and it took some time until we could confirm the damage caused in each place,” a Kumamoto prefectural government official said. “Some local government buildings also were damaged, and this affected their administrative functions. This is a major reason for the delay, but we want to get construction moving as quickly as we can.”
Construction will be welcomed by the many residents still living in evacuation shelters and sleeping in cars.
“I want to leave this shelter and quickly move into a temporary home,” said a 71-year-old farmer from the hard-hit village of Minami-Aso, Kumamoto Prefecture. The farmer’s house was destroyed by the earthquakes, and he is staying at a shelter with his 88-year-old mother and one other family member. Minami-Aso officials began surveying residents about whether they wanted to move into temporary accommodation on Tuesday. Until then, the officials reportedly were inundated with other work due to the sheer devastation triggered by the quakes, which killed 49 people and injured 1,641. One person remains missing.
Local governments, swamped with helping evacuees and repairing essential utilities, could not spare enough personnel to survey the damage. Frequent aftershocks also made conducting surveys difficult.
As a result, the commencement of temporary housing construction in Kumamoto Prefecture took more than a week longer than such operations did following the Great Hanshin, Niigata Prefecture Chuetsu and Great East Japan earthquakes.
Delays in building these units will prolong the time evacuees have to stay in shelters. After the Great Hanshin Earthquake, it took half a month before people could start moving into temporary housing. After the Chuetsu earthquake and the Great East Japan Earthquake, about one month was needed. However, the first unit in Kumamoto Prefecture is scheduled to be completed in mid-June at the earliest, meaning evacuees likely will start moving in about two months after the quakes struck.
Suitable sites lacking
About 5,000 people are still staying in shelters in the town of Mashiki, where two earthquakes registered a maximum 7 on the Japanese seismic intensity scale. “Saving people’s lives was the top priority immediately after the earthquakes,” Mashiki Mayor Hironori Nishimura told The Yomiuri Shimbun. “But now we will do everything we can to construct temporary housing units so people can get back to their normal lives.”
Mashiki has set a goal of building 500 units, but the details have been finalized for only 140. Finding suitable sites has not progressed smoothly; some public land earmarked for temporary housing can no longer be used because it is subsiding.
The quakes caused multiple landslides in Minami-Aso. The town has dropped plans to build housing units in its Tateno district, which has been cut off from the central part of Minami-Aso due to the collapse of the Aso Ohashi bridge. It is considering constructing the units in a neighbouring town.
Kumamoto Prefecture currently plans to build 2,100 temporary housing units. The Yomiuri Shimbun surveyed 15 cities, towns and villages in the prefecture that have called for such units, about how many they need. Figures provided by 11 municipalities totaled more than 1,900 units. Four municipalities still did not know exactly how many they need, so the number of 1,900 is likely to rise. The prefectural and local governments will need to coordinate to speed up the construction process.
