The outlook for Singapore’s economic growth was trimmed yet again, according to an official survey of forecasters released Wednesday.
The December survey of professional forecasters, sent out in late November, by the city-state’s central bank, the Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS), found economists turned more bearish since the previous survey.
They expected Singapore’s economy would grow just 1.5 per cent in 2017 on average, down from the September survey’s forecast for 1.8 per cent and the June survey’s projection of 2.1 per cent.
The latest forecasts for 2017 growth ranged from 0.7 per cent to 2.3 per cent.
The December survey, which had 22 respondents, doesn’t reflect the MAS’ own forecasts.
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In a statement released December 2, the MAS said it expected Singapore’s gross domestic product (GDP) would rise by 1-3 per cent in 2017 after rising an estimated 1.0-1.5 per cent in 2016.
Singapore’s small, open economy has been buffeted by declines in global trade as well as its exposure to sharp drops in commodity prices.
Redundancies in the first nine months of the year hit their highest since the first nine months of 2009, during the global financial crisis, government data earlier this week showed.
The forecasters expected the headline consumer price index (CPI) would rise 1.0 per cent next year.
The survey found the Singapore dollar was expected to weaken further against the greenback, with the average forecast expecting the US dollar to be fetching around 1.465 Singapore dollars at the end of 2017. The forecasts ranged from 1.37 to 1.55 Singapore dollars. At 12:06 p.m. HK/SIN, the greenback was fetching S$1.4255.
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In the survey, the forecasters also cut their outlook for this year’s growth to 1.4 per cent from 1.8 per cent in the September survey. That followed third-quarter growth coming in weaker than expected at 1.1 per cent on-year, below the September survey’s forecast of 1.7 per cent.
The forecasts for 2016 growth ranged from 1.1 per cent to 1.6 per cent.
The economists now expected the finance and insurance sector would grow just 0.5 per cent in 2016, down from 2.0 per cent in the previous survey. They also cut the wholesale and retail trade growth forecast to 0.1 per cent for 2016, down from the September survey’s 2.1 per cent growth forecast.
The private consumption growth forecast was cut to 1.4 per cent for this year, down from 3.0 per cent in the September survey.
The headline consumer price index was expected to fall 0.5 per cent for the full year, with the forecast unchanged from September.
For the fourth quarter of 2016, economists expected just 0.6 per cent on-year growth on average, with a median forecast of 0.8 per cent. The forecasts ranged from a 0.6 per cent contraction to 1.4 per cent growth.
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