The Jakarta gubernatorial election may have demonstrated how frail the government’s coalition can become when its rivals play the sectarianism card hard.
Backed by all seven government coalition parties except the National Mandate Party (PAN), the incumbent Basuki “Ahok” Tjahaja Purnama-Djarot Saiful Hidayat ticket lost to the rival Anies Baswedan-Sandiaga Uno ticket, only securing 42 per cent of about 7 million votes, according to quick count results.
On Saturday, three days after the heated Jakarta runoff, President Joko “Jokowi” Widodo signaled that he might be mulling another Cabinet reshuffle.
He complained about the inability of several ministries to achieve targets, especially in regard to economic policies.
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“I always set targets for my ministers,” Jokowi said in a speech at the Economic Congregation Congress organised by the Indonesian Ulema Council (MUI) in Jakarta.
“I am ready to dismiss or replace aides and ministers if any targets are missed,” the President went on.
As an example he cited his flagship land reform programme, in which his government aims to issue 5 million land certificates this year, and gradually increase the target by 2 million every year until the end of his first term.
The President’s remarks have raised speculation over a possible third cabinet reshuffle.
Since taking office in 2014, Jokowi has made two Cabinet reshuffles: once in August 2015, in which six Cabinet members were reshuffled, and another in July 2016, which saw changes in 12 Cabinet positions.
Jokowi also made remarks about poor performances from some Cabinet members days before the previous reshuffles.
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Before the Jakarta runoff election, elites from the National Awakening Party (PKB) and United Development Party (PPP) expressed concern that they could lose their Cabinet positions.
Speaking on condition of anonymity, executive members from both parties told The Jakarta.
Post that high-ranking aides from Jokowi’s inner circle “had threatened” that PKB’s three ministerial posts and PPP’s one post could be in jeopardy if they refused to support Ahok and Djarot.
Analysts suggested that a reshuffle could be needed to consolidate electoral power ahead of the 2018 simultaneous regional elections and 2019 legislative and presidential elections.
The 2018 elections will be held in 171 provinces, regencies and cities, including the country’s three mostpopulous provinces: West Java, East Java and Central Java.
The combined population of the three provinces accounts for almost half of the national population.
However, political analyst Marcus Mietzner from the Australian National University said a cabinet reshuffle might have little impact on the presence of Islamic parties in Jokowi’s Cabinet.
According to him, Jokowi will need at least one “influential” Islamic party in his nominating coalition for 2019 to counter possible smear campaigns using religious and ethnic sentiments.
“He has no reason to remove either the PKB or PPP from the cabinet. That would drive them into the arms of Prabowo,” Mietzner told the Post, referring to Gerindra Party chairman Prabowo Subianto, Jokowi’s presidential contender in 2014 who has indicated that he may challenge Jokowi again in the 2019 race.
The PPP’s secretary-general, Arsul Sani, responded to the issue diplomatically.
“To reshuffle the cabinet is the President’s prerogative,” he said.
Eddy Suparno, PAN’s secretary general, said the party’s stance in the Jakarta election should not be linked to speculation about a Cabinet reshuffle.
“What happened in Jakarta does not reflect the nature of our relationship with other members of the [government] coalition,” Eddy said.
“There are still other regional elections before the 2019 elections that provide good opportunities for Islamic parties like us to collaborate with nationalist parties.”
